According to Redfin, your states overall political stance may determine how much you pay for a home—swing states were noticeably perceptible to this fact as median housing payments have doubled to $2,161 per month in these states since the last election.
The sharp rise is attributed to soaring home prices and climbing mortgage rates, with the median home-sale price in swing states jumping nearly 40% to $316,063 in 2024. Concurrently, the average mortgage rate has spiked to 6.89% according to Freddie Mac, more than double the record low seen at the start of 2021.
Redfin’s comprehensive analysis spans from 2016 to 2024 and underscores the impact on affordability across different states. In red states, median housing payments rose 95% to a record $2,066, while in blue states, payments increased 83% to $3,311—the highest among all categories.
“These findings underscore a troubling trend in housing affordability, especially in states that will play a pivotal role in deciding the next president,” said Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa. Swing states identified in the report include Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina.
The strain on affordability is evident across demographics, with households now spending a significant portion of their incomes on housing costs. For instance, a median-earning family in swing states would need to allocate 32.8% of their income to afford the median-priced home, up from 21.8% in 2020. Similar trends are observed in both red and blue states, where housing costs have outpaced income growth.
The issue has become a focal point for voters, particularly among younger demographics. A recent survey commissioned by Redfin highlighted that over 90% of Generation Z voters consider housing affordability a critical factor in the upcoming election.
Despite rising home values benefiting current homeowners, the broader impact on economic sentiment remains profound. “The inability to afford a home is shaping voter perceptions on the economy and personal financial futures,” noted de la Campa.
The Biden administration has proposed measures to address housing affordability, contrasting with strategies suggested by former President Donald Trump. The debate underscores the significance of housing policy in electoral discourse as voters in swing states grapple with the consequences of unprecedented market dynamics.
The report also sheds light on disparities among racial and ethnic groups, revealing that Black and Hispanic families face even greater challenges in affording homes compared to their white and Asian counterparts. In swing states, a typical Black household now spends nearly half (48.2%) of its income on housing, compared to 32.7% in 2020.
The housing crisis, exacerbated by the pandemic-driven surge in demand and subsequent supply shortages, has reshaped migration patterns and economic priorities across the nation. As the election cycle intensifies, housing affordability is set to remain a defining issue, influencing voter decisions and policy agendas.
