According to a new Redfin analysis, in the first eight months of 2024, only 25 out of every 1,000 U.S. homes changed hands, representing the lowest turnover rate in decades. Further data found that some 31% fewer homes were sold this year than in the final pre-pandemic year of 2019 (36 of every 1,000), and 37.5% fewer homes were sold this year than during the peak of the pandemic buying frenzy in 2021 (40 of every 1,000).
“Mortgage rates have already fallen more than one percentage point from their 2024 peak, but we have not yet seen a significant increase in the number of homes changing hands. Of the homes listed this year, many have gone stale because of the lack of demand—especially homes which needed a little extra work,” said Elijah de la Campa, Senior Economist at Redfin. “With the majority of homeowners locked into low mortgages, rates will need to keep falling consistently for many to feel comfortable moving on from the deals they secured years ago.”
Redfin compared the first eight months of 2024 across various metro areas, property kinds, and neighborhood types in order to measure housing turnover. Redfin is using turnover, which shows how frequently homes are sold in a certain location, as a gauge of housing availability. Expanding on Redfin’s findings, this year’s turnover rate is the lowest in at least the last 30 years. The analysis examined data from 2012–2024. In the early to mid-1990s, existing home sales were comparable, but there were fewer homes overall, which meant that the turnover rate was higher.
Listings Remain at Their Lowest Point in More Than 10 Years
In the first eight months of 2024, there were fewer homes listed for sale as well—a level not seen since at least 2012, the first year listing data was available.
Out of 1,000 homes, just 32 were for sale in the first eight months of this year. This figure represents a 29% drop from the 45 listings per 1,000 homes it had during the pandemic buying frenzy in 2021 and a 30% drop from the 46 listings per 1,000 homes it had before the pandemic in 2019.
The study showed that there are several interrelated reasons why homes are being sold at historically low prices, including:
- Elevated mortgage rates: The majority of American homeowners with mortgages have obtained rates below 5%, which is significantly lower than the current market rates, which reached a high of 7.52% in April. This has caused a situation known as the “lock-in effect,” whereby many homeowners have decided to postpone selling and purchasing another property at a higher rate. Although rates dropped to as low as 6% in August, sales have not yet significantly increased as a result of the decline.
- Rising prices and low supply:This year has seen record highs for US home prices, with steady price increases due to a steady demand from buyers. Even while there are more properties available now than there were a year ago, the number of residences advertised for sale is still significantly lower than it was prior to the pandemic.
- Economic and political uncertainty: This year, with concerns of a potential recession and an intense U.S. Presidential race between two candidates with diametrically opposed economic and housing policies, many buyers and sellers have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. Additionally, many people are taking their time to comprehend the new guidelines regarding real estate agent costs.
Suburban, Rural Properties Somewhat More Likely to Change Ownership Than Homes in Cities
During the first eight months of this year, approximately 25 out of every 1,000 single-family homes and condos/townhouses in suburban and rural areas sold; this is a little higher clip than the roughly 24 out of every 1,000 homes that sold in urban areas.
In suburban and rural areas, the turnover rate of single-family homes has decreased by 32.9% since 2019, while that of condos and townhouses has decreased by 37.6%. In contrast, the rate of turnover for urban single-family residences decreased by 25.8%, whilst the rate for condominiums and townhouses decreased by 35.2%.Additionally, listings are at their lowest point in more than ten years.
Over the last year, all property types and all areas have seen a decrease in the turnover rate, with condos and townhouses experiencing the largest drops overall. This is because, when HOA and insurance prices rose, condo sales declined and the nation’s inventory of units expanded.
Phoenix and Newark, New Jersey, Offer Largest Selection of Homes for Buyers
Based on Redfin’s survey of the 50 most populated metro areas, several Sun Belt cities and metro areas close to New York topped the list of major metro areas with the highest turnover rate. Of the main metro areas, Phoenix had the highest turnover rate, with 38 out of every 1,000 residences changing hands. Next in order of prevalence were Newark, NJ (37 per 1,000), Nashville, TN (36 per 1,000), and Tampa, FL (35 per 1,000).
Top 10 Metro Areas With Highest Home Turnover
1. Phoenix:
- (2024 Sales per 1,000 homes: 37.7)
- (2019-2024 difference: -43.2%)
2. Newark, NJ:
- (36.7)
- (-41.4%)
3. Nashville, TN:
- (36.4)
- (-46.4%)
4. Tampa, FL:
- (35.1)
- (-35.6%)
5. Nassau County, NY:
- (31.2)
- (-33.1%)
6. St. Louis:
- (30.0)
- (-28.7%)
7. Austin, TX:
- (29.9)
- (-49%)
8. Denver:
- (29.6)
- (-29.5%)
9. Jacksonville, FL:
- (28.7)
- (-45.3%)
10. Detroit:
- (28.1)
- (-20.3%)
The top three cities on the list in 2019 were the same ones, albeit in a slightly altered order. Throughout the pandemic, Sun Belt metros like Phoenix and Nashville, TN, saw a comparatively robust level of activity as workers sought for reasonably priced homes and remote work opportunities. Due to the allure of suburban living close to New York, commuter metro areas like Newark and Nassau County, NY, continue to see greater rates of population turnover.
At least 10% fewer properties were sold in each metro area this year than in 2019, with San Jose, CA, seeing the lowest decline (-13.7%), followed by San Francisco (-18.1%) and Detroit (-14.6%), which also moved up to 10th place among the big metros with the largest turnover.
Los Angeles Boasts the Least Amount of Property Turnover
Seven of the 10 metro areas with the lowest rates of turnover in the first eight months of the year are located in California. Out of all the metro areas Redfin looked at, Los Angeles had the lowest turnover rate, with only 15 out of every 1,000 residences changing hands this year.
Metro Areas With Lowest Property Turnover
1. Los Angeles:
- (2024 sales per 1,000 homes: 15.2)
- (2019-2024 difference: -32%)
2. Boston:
- (15.6)
- (-37.8%)
3. San Francisco:
- (16.6)
- (-18.1%)
4. Oakland, CA:
- (17.1)
- (-32.2%)
5. Anaheim, CA:
- (17.1)
- (-33.2%)
6. San Jose, CA:
- (17.3)
- (-13.7%)
7. Providence, RI:
- (17.5)
- (-41.0%)
8. Montgomery County, PA:
- (17.9)
- (-36.4%)
9. Sacramento, CA:
- (18.1)
- (-39.5%)
10. San Diego:
- (18.4)
- (-38.4%)
It should come as no surprise that California has historically had low housing turnover because of the state’s tax regulations, particularly proposition 13, which limits property tax increases and encourages homeowners to stay in their homes.
Despite California’s lower turnover rate, the three Bay Area metros of San Jose (+13.1%), San Francisco (+3.5%), and Oakland (+1.6%) were the only significant major cities to have a rise in home sales in 2024 compared to 2023. Austin, TX, had the largest decrease in turnover rate over the previous five years, with 30 sales out of every 1,000 residences this year, down 49% from 59 sales out of 1,000 in 2019.
To read the full report, including more data, charts, and methodology, click here.
