ATTOM has released its latest Special Housing Market Impact Risk Report, a study examining county-level housing markets around the U.S. that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity, and other measures in the third quarter of 2024. The report shows that California, New Jersey, and Illinois once again had high concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with parts of Florida also joining that mix. Less-vulnerable markets continued to be clustered in the Southern U.S.
The Q3 patterns–derived from gaps in affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment trends–revealed that two-thirds of the 50 counties around the U.S. considered most exposed to potential fallbacks were in California, Florida, Illinois, and New Jersey. Florida was a new addition to that group in Q3 after earlier periods when it had fewer markets making the list of areas at elevated risk of downturns.
County-level housing markets on the latest list included six in and around Chicago, five in or near New York City, and four in southern New Jersey. Another 13 were in California, mostly inland from the Pacific Coast. The rest were scattered largely around the Northeast, South and Midwest. At the other end of the risk spectrum, more than half the markets considered least likely to decline fell in Virginia, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Montana, and New Hampshire. They included four in the Washington, D.C. region.
For the study, ATTOM considered counties more or less at-risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates. The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 578 counties around the United States with sufficient data to analyze in the third quarter of 2024. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks.
Measuring the Impact of Rising Prices
An increase in home prices has surpassed most wage gains around the country to varying degrees, leading to homeownership costs consuming more than triple the portion of average wages in some parts of the country compared to others. According to Zillow, the average U.S. home value currently stands at $359,099, up 2.6% year-over-year. Similar disparities can be found in several other measures: unemployment rates, the level of homeowners facing foreclosure, and the portion owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.
“The recent market risk patterns changed a bit in the third quarter, with some new areas making the list of places more or less exposed to downfalls. But the big picture remained pretty much the same around the country as differences in important metrics helped produce varying pockets of vulnerability,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “As with past reports, this one is not meant to suggest any given area is about to fall or is immune from problems. Rather, it spotlights locations that look to be more or less able to withstand significant changes in market conditions. We will continue to keep a close watch on markets throughout the country to see how things track.”
Pinpointing the Markets Most Vulnerable
The metropolitan areas around New York, New York; and Chicago, Illinois, as well as areas of California, had 24 of the 50 U.S. counties considered most vulnerable in Q3 of 2024 to housing market troubles. The counties were among 578 around the nation with enough data to analyze. The most at-risk counties included:
- Cook, Kane, Kendall, McHenry and Will counties in Illinois and Lake County in Indiana
- Two in New York City (Kings County, which covers Brooklyn, and New York County, which covers Manhattan)
- Three in the New York City suburbs (Essex, Passaic and Sussex counties, all in northern New Jersey)
- Another 13 were located in California: Butte County (Chico), Contra Costa County (outside Oakland), El Dorado County (outside Sacramento), Humboldt County (Eureka) and Solano County (outside Sacramento) in the northern part of the state, plus Kern County (Bakersfield), Kings County (outside Fresno), Madera County (outside Fresno), Merced County, San Joaquin County (Stockton) and Stanislas County (Modesto) in central California. Two others, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, were in southern California.
Affordability, Underwater Mortgages, Foreclosures and Unemployment High in Most At-Risk Markets
Major homeownership costs (mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance) on median-priced single-family homes and condos were considered seriously unaffordable in 30 of the 50 counties deemed most vulnerable to market drop-offs in Q3 of 2024. That means those expenses consumed at least 43% of average local wages. Nationwide, major expenses on typical homes sold in the third quarter required 34% of average local wages, a level also above basic affordability benchmarks.
The highest percentages in the most at-risk markets were reported in:
- Kings County (Brooklyn), New York (108% of average local wages needed for major ownership costs)
- Riverside County, California (70.2% of average local wages needed for major ownership costs)
- El Dorado County, California (outside Sacramento) (66.3% of average local wages needed for major ownership costs)
- Passaic County, New Jersey (outside New York City) (65.9% of average local wages needed for major ownership costs)
- New York County (Manhattan), New York (65.1% of average local wages needed for major ownership costs)
At least 6% of residential mortgages were underwater in Q3 of 2024 in 23 of the 50 most-at-risk counties. Nationwide, 5.5% of mortgages fell into that category, with homeowners owing more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their properties. Those with the highest underwater rates among the 50 most at-risk counties were found in:
- Clair County, Illinois (outside St. Louis, Missouri) (15% underwater)
- Tangipahoa Parish, Louisiana (east of Baton Rouge) (13.7% underwater)
- Pinal County, Arizona (outside Phoenix) (12.4% underwater)
- Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania (11.9% underwater)
- Marion County, Florida (outside Gainesville) (11% underwater)
More than one of every 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action in Q3 of 2024 in 35 of the 50 most vulnerable counties. Nationwide, one in 1,618 homes were in that position. The highest foreclosure-case rates in those counties were:
- Charlotte County (Punta Gorda), Florida (one in 449 residential properties facing possible foreclosure)
- Osceola County, Florida (outside Orlando) (one in 473 residential properties facing possible foreclosure)
- Dorchester County, South Carolina (outside Charleston) (one in 509 residential properties facing possible foreclosure)
- Cumberland County (Vineland), New Jersey (one in 571 residential properties facing possible foreclosure)
- Warren County, New Jersey (outside Allentown, Pennsylvania) (one in 574 residential properties facing possible foreclosure)
The August 2024 unemployment rate was at least 5% in 34 of the 50 most at-risk counties, while the nationwide figure stood at 4.2%. The highest rates were reported in:
- Merced County, California (9.1%)
- Kern County (Bakersfield), California (8.7%)
- Kings County, California (outside Fresno) (8.2%)
- Cumberland County (Vineland), New Jersey (7.7%)
- Madera County, California (outside Fresno) (7.4%)
Areas Least At-Risk
Twenty-two of the 50 counties considered least vulnerable to housing market problems from among the 578 reviewed in the third-quarter report were in the South. Another 13 were in Midwest, followed by 11 in the Northeast and just four in the West.
Tennessee had eight of the least at-risk counties in Q3, including:
- Rutherford and Williamson counties in the Nashville metro area
- Blount and Knox County in the Knoxville metro area
- Hamilton County (Chattanooga)
- Bradley County (outside Chattanooga)
- Sullivan County (Kingsport)
- Washington County (Johnson City)
Wisconsin had seven metros reporting as low at-risk, including:
- Brown County (Green Bay)
- Outagamie County (outside Green Bay)
- Dane County (Madison)
- Rock County (outside Madison)
- Eau Claire County, La Crosse County
- Winnebago County (Oshkosh)
