ATTOM has released its latest Special Housing Risk Report, spotlighting county-level housing markets around the nation that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity, and other measures in Q4 2024. ATTOM’s report shows that California, Illinois, and the New York City area had high concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with parts of Florida also in that mix. Less-vulnerable markets were clustered in various other areas of the Northeast, Midwest, and South.
Q4 patterns–derived from gaps in affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment–revealed that two-thirds of the 50 counties around the U.S. considered most exposed to potential fallbacks were in California, Florida, Illinois, and the New York City region.
County-level housing markets on the latest list included five in and around Chicago, Illinois, four in or near New York City, and seven scattered across Florida. Another 14 were reported in California, mostly inland from the Pacific coast. The rest were spread across different stretches of the Midwest, Northeast and South, which had a range of high- and low-risk markets.
At the other end of the exposure spectrum, roughly half the markets considered least likely to decline fell in Wisconsin, Virginia, Tennessee, and Pennsylvania. They included four in the Washington, D.C., area and three each in the Nashville, Tennessee, and Richmond, Virginia regions.
As with earlier periods over the past few years, the latest gaps continued trends resulting from the nation’s 14-year housing-market boom, along with the broader economy, affecting different parts of the country in different ways.
The continued rise in home prices around much of the nation has outpaced most wage gains, which has led to home ownership costs consuming more than triple the portion of average wages in some parts of the country compared to others. Similar disparities can be found in several other measures: unemployment rates, the level of homeowners facing foreclosure and the portion owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.
“Local housing markets fluctuate in and out of the lists of areas more or less exposed to declines from quarter to quarter, but some regions consistently rank among the most vulnerable due to significant gaps in key market indicators,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “This report isn’t meant to raise red flags or predict endless gains—it simply highlights counties experiencing more or less pressure that could influence home values, foreclosures, or homeowner equity.”
According to ATTOM, counties were considered more or less at-risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 566 counties around the United States with sufficient data to analyze in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Markets More Exposed to Declines Are Clustered
The metropolitan areas around New York, New York and Chicago, Illinois, as well as broad swaths of California, had 23 of the 50 U.S. counties considered most vulnerable in the fourth quarter of 2024 to housing market troubles. The counties were among 566 around the nation with enough data to analyze.
ATTOM found the most at-risk counties included Cook, Kane, Kendall, McHenry, and Will counties in Illinois; two in New York City (Kings County, which covers Brooklyn, and Richmond County, which covers Staten Island); and two in the New York City suburbs (Essex and Passaic counties in northern New Jersey).
The 14 counties at-risk in California were found in Butte County (Chico), Contra Costa County (outside Oakland), El Dorado County (outside Sacramento), Humboldt County (Eureka), Shasta County (Redding) and Solano County (outside Sacramento) in the northern part of the state, plus Fresno County, Kern County (Bakersfield), Kings County (outside Fresno), Madera County (outside Fresno), San Joaquin County (Stockton), and Stanislas County (Modesto) in central California. Two others, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, were in southern California.
Elsewhere, the most vulnerable counties included three in the Washington, D.C. area (D.C., along with Charles County and Prince George’s County in Maryland), and these in Florida: Charlotte County (Punta Gorda), Hernando County (Spring Hill), Lake County (Clermont), Marion County (outside Gainesville), Pasco County (outside Tampa), Polk County (Lakeland), and St. Lucie County (Port St. Lucie).
Characteristics of the Most Vulnerable Markets
Major homeownership costs (mortgage payments, property taxes, and insurance) on median-priced single-family homes and condos were considered seriously unaffordable in 28 of the 50 counties deemed most vulnerable to market drop-offs in Q4 of 2024. That means those expenses consumed at least 43% of average local wages. Nationwide, major expenses on typical homes sold Q4 required 34% of average local wages, a level also above commonly accepted affordability benchmarks.
The highest percentages in the most at-risk markets were in Kings County (Brooklyn), New York (106.5% of average local wages needed for major ownership costs); Riverside County, California (70.4%); Passaic County, New Jersey (outside New York City) (69.4%); Richmond County (Staten Island), New York (67.6%) and El Dorado County, California (outside Sacramento) (66.5%).
More than 6% of residential mortgages were underwater in Q4 of 2024 in 29 of the 50 most-at-risk counties. Nationwide, 5.7% of mortgages fell into that category, with homeowners owing more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their properties. Those with the highest underwater rates among the 50 most at-risk counties were Pasco County, Florida (outside Tampa) (15.8% underwater); Baltimore City/County, Maryland (15.3%); Orleans Parish (New Orleans), Louisiana (15.3%); Tangipahoa Parish, Louisiana (east of Baton Rouge) (14%); and Charlotte County (Punta Gorda), Florida (14%).
More than one of every 1,000 properties faced a foreclosure action in Q4 of 2024 in 37 of the 50 most vulnerable counties. Nationwide, one in 1,671 homes were in that position. The highest foreclosure-case rates in those counties were in Charlotte County (Punta Gorda), Florida (one in 198 properties facing possible foreclosure); Cumberland County (Vineland), New Jersey (one in 484); Kaufman County, Texas (outside Dallas) (one in 562); Madera County, California (outside Fresno) (one in 631) and Shasta County (Redding), California (one in 664).
The November 2024 unemployment rate was at least 5% in 25 of the 50 most at-risk counties, while the nationwide figure stood at 4.2%. The highest rates were reported in Kern County (Bakersfield), California (7.9%); Kings County,); Madera County, California (outside Fresno) (7.3%); and Stanislaus County (Modesto), California (6.7%).
Where at the Least At-Risk Counties Are Located?
Twenty-three of the 51 counties considered least vulnerable to housing market problems from among the 566 reviewed in the Q4 report were in the South. Another 13 each were in Midwest and Northeast, followed by two in the West.
Wisconsin had eight of the least at-risk counties in Q4: Brown County (Green Bay), Outagamie County (outside Green Bay), Dane County (Madison), Rock County (outside Madison), Eau Claire County, La Crosse County, Washington County (outside Milwaukee), and Winnebago County (Oshkosh).
The Volunteer State of Tennessee had six: Davidson, Rutherford, and Williamson counties in the Nashville metro area, Knox County (Knoxville), Sullivan County (Kingsport), and Washington County (Johnson City).
Another five were in the Keystone state of Pennsylvania: Cumberland and Dauphin counties in the Harrisburg metro area, Erie County, Lebanon County and Lehigh County (Allentown).
Aside from Dane and Davidson counties, three other counties with a population of at least 500,000 were among the 51 least at risk–Fairfax County, Virginia (outside Washington, D.C.); Mecklenburg County (Charlotte), North Carolina; and Wake County (Raleigh), North Carolina.
Better Market Metrics Boost Less-Vulnerable Counties
Major ownership costs on median-priced single-family homes and condos were seriously unaffordable in only 10 of the 51 counties that were considered least vulnerable to market problems in Q4 of 2024 (compared to 28 of the most at-risk counties).
The lowest portions of wages required for homeownership were in Monongalia County (Morganton), West Virginia (23.8%); Erie County, Pennsylvania (25.1%); Dauphin County (Harrisburg), Pennsylvania (25.5%); Sullivan County (Kingsport), Tennessee (26.1%); and Richmond City/County, Virginia (26.2%).
More than 6% of residential mortgages were underwater in Q4 of 2024 (with owners owing more than their properties were worth) in only two of the 51 least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates were Chittenden County (Burlington), Vermont (0.9% underwater); Loudoun County, Virginia (outside D.C.) (1.6%); Hillsborough County (Manchester), New Hampshire (1.9%); Henrico County, Virginia (outside Richmond) (2.1%); and Williamson County, Tennessee (outside Nashville) (2.3%).
More than one in 1,000 properties faced a foreclosure action during Q4 of 2024 in none of the least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates were Cumberland County (Carlisle), Pennsylvania (one in 36,385 properties faced possible foreclosure); Chittenden County (Burlington), Vermont (one in 24,403); Winnebago County (Oshkosh), Wisconsin (one in 19,903); Gallatin County (Bozeman), Montana (one in 13,401); and Berkeley County (Martinsburg), West Virginia (one in 12,823).
The November 2024 unemployment rate was less than the national level in all 51 of the least-at-risk counties. The lowest rates among those counties were in Chittenden County (Burlington), Vermont (2.1%); Dane County (Madison), Wisconsin (2.1%); and La Crosse County, Wisconsin (2.1%), with four others at 2.2%. Those four were Eau Claire County, Wisconsin; Outagamie County, Wisconsin (outside Green Bay); Washington County (Fayetteville), Arkansas, and Olmsted County (Rochester), Minnesota.
