The August 2025 results for the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices were issued today by the S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI).
“August’s data shows U.S. home prices continuing to slow, with the National Index up just 1.5% year-over-year,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “This marks the weakest annual gain in over two years and falls well below the 3% inflation rate. For the fourth straight month, home values have lost ground to inflation, meaning homeowners are seeing their real wealth decline even as nominal prices inch higher.”
Godec continued: “The National Index rose 1.5% over the past year, with most of that gain coming in the recent six months (up 1.5%) while the prior six months were essentially flat. The 20-City Composite gained 1.6% annually and the 10-City rose 2.1%, both continuing their deceleration from earlier in the year.”
Year-Over-Year Trends, Metro Data & More
After a 1.6% increase the month before, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which accounts for all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 1.5% annual gain for August. After rising 2.3% the month before, the 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 2.1%. After rising 1.8% the month before, the 20-City Composite saw a 1.6% year-over-year increase.
With a 6.1% increase in August, New York once again recorded the largest annual gain out of the 20 cities. Chicago and Cleveland came in second and third, with annual gains of 5.9% and 4.7%, respectively. With a 3.3% decline, Tampa had the lowest return.
“New York again led all metros with a 6.1% annual gain, followed by Chicago at 5.9% and Cleveland at 4.7%. These Midwest and Northeast markets, which saw modest gains during the pandemic, continue to outperform,” Godec said. “At the other end, Tampa fell 3.3% year over year, Phoenix dropped 1.7%, and Miami declined 1.7%. Several Western markets also posted losses: San Francisco fell 1.5%, Denver dropped 0.7%, and San Diego declined 0.7%. Seattle turned slightly negative at -0.1%.3″Monthly data for August was weak across the board. Nineteen of 20 cities saw price declines before seasonal adjustment, with only Chicago posting a gain. The National Index fell 0.3% for the month, while both the 10-City and 20-City Composites dropped 0.6%. After seasonal adjustment, all three indices remained negative, suggesting weakness beyond normal seasonal patterns. Phoenix fell 0.9% in August alone, while Los Angeles, Portland, and Denver each dropped between 0.7% and 1.0%.”
In August, the pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite indexes all showed negative month-over-month changes, with the U.S. national index showing a decline of -0.3% and the 10-City and 20-City Composite indexes showing declines of -0.6%. All three indicators showed a 0.2% month-over-month gain following seasonal adjustment.
“Mortgage rates remaining above 6.5% continue to weigh on buyer demand, even during what should be the busy summer season,” Godec said. “The combination of high financing costs and prices that remain near record highs has limited transaction activity. Markets that experienced the sharpest pandemic-era gains are now seeing the largest corrections, while more affordable metros with stable local economies are holding up better. Looking ahead, the housing market appears to be finding a new equilibrium after the pandemic boom. With price growth running at half the rate of inflation and several major markets in decline, the rapid appreciation of recent years has clearly ended. This adjustment may ultimately lead to a more sustainable market, but for now, homeowners are watching their real equity erode while buyers face the dual challenge of elevated prices and high borrowing costs.”
Additional Supporting Data — National
August 2025 saw a 1.5% yearly gain in the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which accounts for all nine U.S. census divisions. Year-over-year growth of 2.1% and 1.6% were reported by the 10-City and 20-City Composites, respectively.
“According to today’s S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index, home price growth continued to slow in August,” Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS. “The U.S. National Index rose by 1.5% year-over-year, the slowest pace of annual home price appreciation since July 2023. According to the index, home price growth has slowed for seven consecutive months. As home prices cool and mortgage rates come down, home shoppers are finding some improvement in affordability. According to the National Association of REALTORS, the median price of an existing home was $432,700 in June when mortgage rates averaged 6.82%. Assuming a 10% downpayment and average property taxes and homeowners’ insurance, the median payment would have been $3,096.”
Together with the present levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs, Table 1 below displays the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites.
| Metric | 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | ||||||
| Index | Level | Date | Level | Date | From Peak (%) | Level | From Trough (%) | From Peak (%) | |
| National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 133.99 | Feb-12 | -27.4 % | 330.02 | 146.3 % | 78.8 % | |
| 20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1 % | 339.99 | 153.6 % | 64.6 % | |
| 10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3 % | 359.59 | 145.5 % | 58.9 % | |
“In September, the median price was down seasonally to $415,200. At a 6.2% interest rate, a buyer now has a median monthly payment of $2,824, a savings of $271 per month,” Sturtevant said. “That average $271 per month savings could be enough to bring some buyers into the market. But growing economic uncertainty is keeping others on the sidelines. The Mortgage Bankers Association has reported that lower rates have led to a big increase in refinance activity but purchase applications have been muted. In a recent survey of real estate agents in the Mid-Atlantic, financial concerns are leading more buyers to back out of deals this fall. Multiple offers are less common and buyers are asking for more concessions.”
Sturtevant continued: “Conditions are very different depending on what market you are looking at. Some of the highest-cost markets, including New York and Boston, are still seeing healthy price gains because these regions have strong local economies and high-wage jobs, along with still-limited inventory. It will be important to watch local economic conditions, including unemployment rates, job growth, big employer layoffs or hiring freezes, to help gauge which markets are likely to see cooler prices in the fourth quarter.”
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