Is the United States at risk of a recession next year? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “no” Sunday when asked that question on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” program.
Bessent said he is confident Americans will feel economic relief next year stemming from President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda and trade deals.
“I am very, very optimistic on 2026. We have set the table for a very strong, noninflationary growth economy,” Bessent told moderator Kristen Welker. “We believe healthcare is going to come down.”
Bessent added that the Trump administration would have news on that front sometime this week.
Acknowledging that that there is some pressure on the economy in certain sectors such as housing, Bessent responded to comments from National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett earlier this month that “we’re starting to see pockets of the economy that look like they might be in a recession.”
Bessent said there are pressures on the economy, however.
“Clearly, housing has been struggling, and interest rate-sensitive sectors have been in a recession,” Bessent said Sunday. He said the recent government shutdown — the longest in U.S. history — also squeezed the economy.
NBC News said one of its polls earlier this month found that roughly two-thirds of registered voters say the Trump administration has fallen short on the economy and the cost of living.
Bessent, however, pointed to the GOP’s domestic policy package that Trump signed into law over the summer — the president’s “big, beautiful bill” — and to the Trump’s tariff and trade agenda as signs that 2026 will yield a stronger economy for Americans.
“I am very confident about 2026, because what we are going to see is the president has done peace deals, tax deals and trade deals [and] the ‘One Big, Beautiful Bill,’” Bessent said. He said the various components of that legislation are “all kicking in.”
Multifamily Loan Purchase Caps to be $88B, FHFA Announces
The 2026 multifamily loan purchase caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be $88 billion for each Enterprise, the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency announced.
That’s a combined total of $176 billion available to support the multifamily market.
U.S. Federal Housing said that it will require at least 50 percent of the Enterprises’ multifamily businesses to be mission-driven, affordable housing to ensure a strong focus on affordable housing and underserved markets.
As in 2025, U.S. Federal Housing said that multifamily loans that finance workforce housing will be excluded from the 2026 limits and that all other mission-driven loans remain subject to the volume caps.
U.S. Federal Housing said it will continue to monitor the multifamily mortgage market and will increase the caps if necessary to ensure the Enterprises continue to provide sufficient liquidity and support in the multifamily mortgage market.
To prevent market disruption it will reduce the caps if U.S. Federal Housing determines that the actual size of the 2026 market is smaller than was initially projected.
FHFA Says Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Value Will Rise to $832,750
In most of the nation, the 2026 conforming loan limit value for one-unit properties will be $832,750, an increase of $26,250 from 2025, the FHFA said.
Federal Housing Finance Agency regulates Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the 11 Federal Home Loan Banks.
The Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) requires FHFA to adjust the Enterprises’ baseline CLL value annually to reflect the change in the average U.S. home price.
FHFA published its third quarter 2025 FHFA House Price Index (FHFA HPI) report that includes statistics for the increase in the average U.S. home value over the last four quarters.
FHFA said that according to the nominal, seasonally adjusted, expanded-data FHFA HPI, house prices increased 3.26 percent, on average, between the third quarters of 2024 and 2025. That means the baseline CLL in 2026 will increase by the same percentage.
The agency said that for areas in which 115 percent of the local median home value exceeds the baseline conforming loan limit value, the applicable loan limit will be higher than the baseline loan limit.
The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 establishes the high-cost area limit in those areas as a multiple of the area median home value, while setting the ceiling at 150 percent of the baseline limit.
Median home values generally increased in high-cost areas in 2025, which increased their CLL values, FHFA said. The new ceiling loan limit for one-unit properties will be $1,249,125, which is 150 percent of $832,750.
FHFA said that special statutory provisions establish different loan limits for Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. There, the baseline loan limit and the ceiling loan limit for one-unit properties will be $1,249,125 and $1,873,675, respectively.
Because of rising home values, the CLL values will be higher in all but 32 U.S. counties or county equivalents, FHFA said.
