October’s flat housing market is a notable difference from the ups and downs of recent years. Pending home sales, closed home sales, new listings—all were little changed from both a month and a year earlier, according to a new study from Redfin.
Price growth also seemed to plateau: the median home sale price rose just 1.4% year over year in October, to $440,523. Compare that to the huge variances of 2020-2024, and even 2025, when prices were up as much as 4.1% at the start of the year.
Existing-home sales flattened out, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million in October, little changed from both a month and a year earlier. Unfortunately, Redfin economists expect existing-home sales to end the year roughly flat with 2024—the worst year for sales since 1995.
The housing market has been stagnating for a while, but this past year has been especially tough. For example, the low for pending sales over the past year was 477,141 in January, and the high was 502,003 last November. That’s a gap of just 24,862—the smallest gap for any 12-month period since 2013. There is a similar trend with new listings and prices.
“Many would-be homebuyers and sellers are paralyzed by high prices and economic uncertainty,” Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan said. “Homebuying activity has stabilized at below-normal levels, and while selling activity has also slowed, there are still a lot more sellers in the market than buyers. That’s allowing the people who are moving ahead with home purchases to score discounts and other concessions from sellers.”
Redfin estimates there are roughly 500,000 more home sellers than buyers actively in the market, which means the buyers who are in the market hold the negotiating power. Many of the people who are selling now are people who have to sell, due to a job change, a divorce, or other major life event.
For Buyers, Discounts Can Be 1.5% or More
The typical home that sold in October went for 1.5% less than its final list price. That’s the biggest October discount since 2019, and a reflection of this buyer’s market. Roughly one-quarter (24.9%) of homes that sold went for more than their final list price, the lowest October share since 2019.
One reason for these discounts is that homes are taking longer to sell. The typical home that went under contract last month spent 51 days on the market—seven days longer than a year earlier, which represents the slowest October since 2016.
Part of this slowdown can be attributed to a mismatch in expectations on both sides. Some sellers are pricing high because they need to recoup their investment, such as if they bought their home for top dollar during the pandemic. But many buyers aren’t willing to pay top dollar: they simply can’t afford it, with mortgage rates more than twice the record low hit during the pandemic.
The good news is, while mortgage rates are still higher than they were in 2020 and 2021, they have ticked down in recent months and are hovering near the lowest level in about a year. But it appears rates will have to fall even further before house hunters jump back into the market.
October 2025 Metro-Level Highlights
Here are the results of the October metro-level analysis.
- Prices:
- Median sale prices rose most from a year earlier in the Midwest: Cleveland (11.6%), Newark (10.9%), and Detroit (10.4%) saw the biggest increases.
- The biggest declines were in Florida and Texas: Jacksonville (-4%), Dallas (-3.6%), and Atlanta (-2.5%).
- All three Bay Area metros—San Jose, San Francisco, and Oakland—also posted declines.
- Pending home sales:
- Pending sales rose most in Florida: West Palm Beach (21.6%), Tampa (18.4%), and San Francisco (12%) posted the biggest increases. (Note that parts of Florida may be seeing large year-over-year jumps because hurricanes slowed the market down last October.)
- Pending sales fell most in Seattle (-15.6%), Minneapolis (-9.8%), and San Antonio (-9.4%).
- Closed home sales:
- Home sales rose most in San Francisco (16.1%), Tampa (9.5%), and West Palm Beach (6.9%).
- They fell most in San Antonio (-16.1%), Las Vegas (-10.3%) and Philadelphia (-9.6%).
- New listings:
- New listings rose most in Tampa (15.9%), West Palm Beach (12.3%), and St. Louis (8.5%).
- They fell most in San Jose (-12.1%), Jacksonville (-10.4%), and Dallas (-8.8%).
- Active listings:
- Active listings rose most in Washington, D.C. (19.3%), Las Vegas (16.9%), and Baltimore (16.1%).
- They fell in just six metros, with the largest declines in San Francisco (-12.7%), San Jose (-10.8%), and Chicago (-2.9%).
- Sold above list price:
- In San Francisco, 58.5% of homes sold above their final list price—the highest share of any metro analyzed. Next came Newark (58%) and San Jose (54%).
- The lowest shares were in West Palm Beach (5.7%), Fort Lauderdale (6.8%), and Miami (7.1%).
- Days on market:
- In Miami, the typical home went under contract in 96 days, up 27 days from a year earlier—the biggest increase among the metros analyzed. Next came Fort Lauderdale (+22 days) and Austin (+18 days).
- Two metros saw decreases in days on market: Kansas City, MO (-5 days) and San Francisco (-2 days).
