The March 2026 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report has been published by Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE), showing that total mortgage originations reached an estimated 1.44 million in Q4, the highest quarterly total since Q3 2022, as servicer retention reached an eight-year high and lending reached its highest level in three and a half years due to a spike in refinance activity.
“The fourth quarter marked a meaningful inflection point for mortgage market activity,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “Refinances accounted for nearly 40% of Q4 lending and servicers retained one in three refinancing borrowers, the strongest overall retention rate since early 2014. Underpinning it all, February’s dip in mortgage rates expanded the refinance-eligible population to 5.4 million borrowers, the largest pool we’ve seen since early 2022, further improving affordability, which is at its best level in nearly four years.”
Key Findings from the March Mortgage Monitor include:
- While affordability remained at multi-year highs, refinance incentives increased.
5.4 million borrowers were deemed refinance-eligible by at least 75 basis points, the largest number since early 2022. The fourth quarter saw an anticipated 565,000 first-lien refinances close, which is the biggest quarterly volume since Q2 2022 and an increase of about 50% from the previous year. With the monthly payment required to buy the average-priced home falling 8% from a year ago to $2,063, affordability has continued to improve from its nearly four-year high.
- Refinance incentives rose as affordability stayed at multi-year highs.
For the first time since early 2022, 5.4 million debtors were considered refinance-eligible by at least 75 basis points. An estimated 565,000 first-lien refinances closed in the fourth quarter, the highest quarterly volume since Q2 2022 and a roughly 50% increase over the prior year. Affordability has continued to improve from its nearly four-year high, with the monthly payment needed to purchase the average-priced home dropping 8% from a year ago to $2,063.
- The biggest second lien volume in eighteen years contributed to the continued strength of equity extraction.
In Q4 of 2025, homeowners took out $52 billion in equity, totaling $205 billion, the biggest amount since 2022. Second liens were used to obtain $116 billion of that total, the highest amount since 2007. The total equity held by homeowners is still close to $17 trillion, of which about $11 trillion is deemed tappable.
- Although the rate of development moderated, property insurance rates reached yet another new high.
In 2025, average yearly property insurance premiums increased by 6.6% ($149) to a record high, but at the slowest rate since 2020. Additionally, since ICE started monitoring monthly statistics in late 2023, the fourth quarter had the first quarter-over-quarter decrease in insurance costs. Borrowers in the highest insurance-burden quintile were at least 22% more likely to be non-current than those in the lowest quintile of the credit score categories examined, according to ICE Climate research. Across credit score quintiles, the non-current rate increased by approximately 0.14 percentage points for every percentage point rise in housing expenses allotted to insurance.
- Employee retention hit an eight-year high.
In Q4, servicers kept one in three refinancing clients, which is the highest retention percentage since the beginning of 2014. Rate-and-term refinancing retention reached 40%, a 14-year high. Recently originated loans performed very well, with retention gains being led by FHA and VA loans.
“The trends we’re observing underscore how quickly rate shifts can reshape borrower opportunity, lender volume and portfolio performance,” said Bob Hart, President of ICE Mortgage Technology. “As refinance incentives return and retention improves, mortgage organizations need technology that helps them identify opportunity faster, engage borrowers more effectively and execute efficiently across the lifecycle. ICE’s end-to-end mortgage platform is built to help clients respond to changing market conditions with greater speed, insight and precision.”
To read the full report, click here.
