The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices’ January 2026 results have been released by S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI). All nine U.S. census divisions are included in the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which reported an annual gain of roughly 0.9% for January. After rising by 2.0% the month before, the 10-City Composite showed an annual increase of 1.7%. Additionally, after increasing approximately 1.4% the month before, the 20-City Composite reported a 1.2% year-over-year (Yoy) increase.
“January’s results show home price gains continuing to cool, with the U.S. National Index up 0.9% year-over-year—down from 1.1% in the prior month,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The 10-City and 20-City Composites followed the same path, easing to 1.7% and 1.2%, respectively, from 2.0% and 1.4% the prior month. Price levels remain elevated, but the rate of appreciation has slowed materially.”
With a 4.9% increase in January, New York had the largest yearly gain of the 20 cities, followed by Chicago and Cleveland with 4.6% and 3.6% annual increases, respectively. With a 2.5% decline, Tampa had the lowest return in January.
According to the report, home prices have had the worst start to a year since the early 2010s, continuing the trend of modest appreciation observed at the end of 2025. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, revealed that in early in 2026, mortgage rates hit their lowest points in almost three years, but the respite was short-lived because rates have recently increased due to the confrontation with Iran.
One of the biggest obstacles to the housing market is still affordability, according to Sturtevant. A more balanced negotiation environment between buyers and sellers will result from prospective purchasers waiting for both lower rates and slower price increase, as well as increasingly requesting concessions from sellers.
“Splitting the year into two halves sharpens the picture,” Godec said. “The National Index rose 2.2% over the first six months of the period, then fell 1.3% over the most recent six—a swing that explains why annual gains have compressed to under 1% despite prices remaining historically elevated. The inflation comparison reinforces the trend,” Godec added. “CPI rose 2.4% over the year ended January 2026, 1.5 percentage points above the National Index’s 0.9% gain. In real terms, home values have declined modestly over the past year.”
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index and the 20-City Composite Index saw a drop of 0.1% and the 10-City Composite decreased 0.03%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices each reported a monthly increase of 0.2%.
“Geographic leadership remains narrow,” Godec added. “New York leads with a 4.9% annual gain, followed by Chicago at 4.6% and Cleveland at 3.6%, while Tampa fell 2.5%. Monthly price changes were slightly negative before seasonal adjustment and modestly positive after—consistent with a market that is neither recovering nor correcting sharply. With 30-year mortgage rates still near 6%, affordability constraints show no sign of easing. Nominal prices are barely rising; in real terms, they are edging lower.”
However, the 2026 housing market is still characterized by a substantial regional gap that is hidden by the national average. Home prices in the Northeast and Midwest continued to rise year over year, with New York (+4.9%), Chicago (+4.6%), and Cleveland (3.6%) showing the biggest price increases. In places like Tampa (-2.5%), Denver (-2.1%), and Phoenix (-1.6%), where inventory has grown at the greatest rate and demand has decreased, prices have decreased.
“Looking ahead, the outlook for the housing market remains cloudy,” Sturtevant said. “While there had been promising signs that affordability was improving, higher rates and growing uncertainty are creating headwinds in the market. Even with cooler demand, home prices are likely to be stable this spring due to the ongoing supply shortfall. However, expect significant variation across markets, with stronger price appreciation in the Northeast and Midwest where inventory remains constrained, and slower price growth and price declines in markets in the South and West where inventory has climbed.”
Note: Cotality continues to have transaction delays from the recording office in Wayne County, the most populous county in the Detroit metro area. These delays impacted the January transaction data and, therefore, no valid January 2026 update of the Detroit S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index will be provided for the March 31, 2026, release date.
