As homeowners in the southeastern U.S. prep for the impending arrival of Tropical Storm Imelda, forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday, the continental United States has largely been spared from major impacts so far this hurricane season, which generally runs from June 1-November 30.
Several storms have formed and have tracked across the Atlantic basin, but most have either stayed out to sea or weakened before reaching land. And as peak hurricane season looms, forecasters caution that the risk to the U.S. is far from over.
Imelda is the ninth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, having formed Sunday in the western Atlantic.
Following an intense hurricane season in 2024, experts have projected above-average storm activity this year. According to forecasts from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and North Carolina State University (NCSU), warmer-than-average Atlantic waters and shifting El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions will contribute to heightened risk across key coastal states.
In response to this forecast, Guidewire HazardHub examined the properties and communities determined to be most vulnerable to hurricane wind and storm surge.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season saw 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes, including multiple Category 5 events. For the 2025 hurricane season, NOAA forecasts 19 to 25 named storms, seven to 11 hurricanes, and three to six major hurricanes (Category 3+).
Colorado State University predicts a 125% increase in activity over historical averages. Warmer Atlantic sea surface temperatures and climate patterns, specifically the expected transition to neutral ENSO conditions in August, drive these forecasts.
Hurricane Trends: Rising Intensity and Risk
Long-term trends underscore hurricane risks. According to the National Climate Assessment, there has been a measurable increase in the intensity and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes over the past two decades. Rapid intensification events, storms escalating from Category 1 to major hurricane strength within 24 hours, have more than doubled since the 1990s, according to AP News.
NASA research and other climate organizations link warming sea surface temperatures and climate risks to stronger winds, more intense rainfall, higher base sea level, and higher storm surges. While overall storm frequency has held steady, the proportion of major hurricanes (Cat 3+) has steadily increased, according to the EPA.
Markets in the Eye of the Storm
According to HazardHub, Florida remains the epicenter of hurricane risk, as the Sunshine State has the highest overall concentration of “D” and “F” rated properties in the U.S. for hurricane vulnerability, according to its own HazardHub Hurricane Risk Score. They found that three million homes in Florida are at risk of storm surge flooding, while 34% of all housing units in the state are vulnerable to surge flooding.
HazardHub identifies Texas as a high-risk state for future hurricane landfalls, with the Houston-Galveston corridor facing particularly elevated exposure. Approximately 5% of homes in Texas are vulnerable to storm surge flooding. Due to the state’s large population, this equates to millions of properties and residents at risk.
Louisiana leads the nation in surge vulnerability, with 52% of homes at risk, approximately 910,000 properties. Mississippi (9% of homes at high risk) and Alabama (3%) also show significant exposure along the coast. These states are frequently affected by both Category 1+ hurricane activity and slow-moving, flood-producing systems.
In the Southeast Corridor of the U.S. (South Carolina, Georgia, and North Carolina), in South Carolina, 21% of housing units are at risk of storm surge, while in Georgia, 4% of the homes are at risk, mostly in coastal zones like Savannah. In North Carolina, 7% of homes face hurricane-related surge threats and wind damage.
In the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, HazardHub found that in the state of Delaware, 20% of homes are exposed to storm surge and in Virginia, 13% of homes are exposed to surge exposure rate.
While New York and New Jersey are not among the most exposed states by percentage, HazardHub flags specific coastal regions, including Long Island and the Jersey Shore, as vulnerable to surge flooding and hurricane wind damage in the event of northern-shifting storms.
Top States for Hurricane Risk
The top 10 states for hurricane risk, based on the percentage of properties rated as “D” (high) or “F” (very high) risk for hurricane damage in the Guidewire HazardHub Hurricane Risk Model, include:
- Florida
- Louisiana
- South Carolina
- Texas
- Mississippi
- North Carolina
- Delaware
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Virginia
These states face the highest hurricane risk, based on factors such as the likelihood of Category 1 or stronger hurricanes, coastal proximity, and the frequency of tropical and subtropical systems.
States at Risk of Storm Surge
The percentage of housing units at risk of storm surge flooding in high-risk hurricane states, based on an ‘F’ rating in the HazardHub SurgeMax Storm Surge Flooding Model, include:
- Louisiana (52%)
- Florida (34%)
- South Carolina (21%)
- Delaware (20%)
- Virginia (13%)
- Mississippi (9%)
- North Carolina (7%)
- Texas (5%)
- Georgia (4%)
- Alabama (3%)
Click here for more on HazardHub’s analysis of areas most at risk to hurricanes and storm surges.
