Population growth in many U.S. metro areas is suddenly at risk following a steep drop in immigration this year. The slowdown threatens household formation and housing demand, especially in large metropolitan regions and areas outside the Sunbelt that have leaned heavily on international migration to sustain growth.
Historically, metro populations grow through three factors: net domestic migration, net international migration, and natural change. But with natural growth declining and many metros losing residents to other parts of the country, immigration has played an outsized role. In fact, immigration was the single largest source of growth in nearly two-thirds of metro areas in 2024, including almost every metro with more than one million residents. In more than a quarter of all metro areas, and two-fifths of large metros, immigration alone prevented population loss. That support has now weakened.
Regional Impacts Vary
The effects of reduced immigration will not be evenly spread. Metro areas in the South, for example, are less dependent on international migration because they continue to gain from both natural growth and net inflows of residents from other states. By contrast, metro areas in the Northeast, Midwest, and West, which saw domestic outmigration in 2024, are more vulnerable. Without international arrivals, many of these metros face stagnation or even decline.
Risks For Housing Demand
The consequences for housing markets could be significant. Lower population growth translates directly into weaker household formation, reducing demand for both rental housing and homeownership. According to projections from the Joint Center for Housing Studies, if immigration remains below average while natural change declines, household growth in the next decade will fall to historically low levels.
Large metros and those outside the Sunbelt are expected to feel the sharpest effects. These areas, already contending with domestic outflows and aging populations, have relied most heavily on immigration in recent years. A prolonged slowdown could therefore mean fewer households, weaker housing demand, and a tougher path forward for urban economies that depend on growth to sustain vitality.
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