Report Finds Many Americans Are Fleeing Flood-Prone Areas  

For the first time since 2019, America is losing more citizens than it is gaining. Some 29,027 more persons left high-risk counties for flooding than did the previous year. In contrast, an estimated 35,941 more people moved into low-flood-risk counties than out, marking the biggest increase since 2019.

This is based on a Redfin analysis of First Street’s climate-risk scores and domestic migration data from the U.S. Census Bureau (which does not include immigration). A county is considered high-risk if its percentage of homes at high risk of flooding falls within the top 10%; that is, if its percentage of high-risk homes ranges from 23.7% to 99.1%. The period covered by migration data for 2024 is July 1, 2023–July 1, 2024. A “net inflow” indicates how many more people moved in than out of an area, whereas a “net outflow” indicates how many more people migrated out of it. Revisions to these data are possible.

Last year’s national net outflow was mostly caused by major hubs in coastal Florida, Texas, New York, and Louisiana. Out of the 310 high-flood-risk counties Redfin examined, Miami-Dade County had the biggest net outflow, with 67,418 more individuals moving out than in. Over one-third of residences in Miami-Dade County are at high risk of flooding. Next, there was a net outflow of 31,165 from Harris County, Texas, which is home to Houston. Brooklyn’s home county, Kings County, NY, came in third with a net outflow of 28,158. Orleans Parish, LA, which is home to New Orleans, is also noteworthy on the top 10 list with a net outflow of 4,950, where the highest percentage of dwellings in the country—roughly 99.1%—face significant flood danger.

Top 10 High-Flood-Risk Counties with the Largest Net Outflows (2024)

For years, the majority of these counties have seen a decline in population, but this year, this trend accelerated in a few of them. For instance, Miami’s net outflow increased from 50,637 in 2023 to 67,418 in 2024, the biggest acceleration of any county at high risk of flooding.

High home costs, climate risk, growing insurance premiums, and politics are some of the concerns that Redfin brokers in flood-prone areas claim have discouraged individuals from moving or staying.

“A lot of people moved to Miami during the pandemic, thinking life would be a vacation,” said local Redfin real estate agent Ozzie Linares. “Many of those people are now leaving because they’ve realized living here isn’t a piece of cake—the city has become increasingly expensive and extreme weather events are on the rise. We were just under a flash flood warning due to higher-than-normal king tides.”

According to Linares, his flood insurance premium has increased to $1,250 from about $400, and his homeowner’s insurance cost has increased to $6,700 year from less than $2,000 two years ago. The growing risk of climate change is driving up insurance rates nationwide.

For purchasers already struggling with high property prices and mortgage rates, rising insurance costs, HOA dues, and condo special assessments have made matters worse, particularly in Florida. A new rule mandating structural inspections and shore-up reserves for condo complexes was passed in response to the 2021 collapse of a condo building in Surfside, Florida, which claimed around 100 lives. In order to comply with the new regulations, several HOAs have been raising fees and imposing large special assessments, which has decreased demand for condos, a particularly popular kind of real estate in coastal Florida.

Ten years ago, migration to the Houston region and Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida, was the main factor driving more people into flood-prone America than out. However, the Houston region began to observe a net outflow from flood-prone areas in 2016; this trend picked up speed in 2017–2019. Due to Hurricane Harvey, a large number of Houstonians fled during this period. Additionally, the region had been dealing with a bust in the oil business, which is still having problems.

During the epidemic, a large number of remote workers relocated to oceanfront Florida and other vulnerable areas of the Sun Belt, reversing the national exodus from flood-prone areas. And now we’re witnessing yet another reversal: a large number of people are fleeing flood-prone America, this time because of things like high housing costs, political unpredictability, and climate risk.

Due to Home Destruction, Many Americans Are Fleeing Flood-Prone Areas

Some are leaving flood-prone locations because they have personally been affected by flooding, while many are doing so due to financial concerns.

The only county in the above table that saw its first net outflow in a long time is Pinellas County, Florida, which is located on the Gulf Coast and is home to St. Petersburg. After Hurricane Helene struck at the end of 2024, causing an estimated $93 million in damage, local Redfin real estate agent Dawn Liedtke claimed that this exodus became more intense.

“A huge part of the Pinellas County population was forced to leave because their homes were flooded in Hurricane Helene,” Liedtke said. “It made people reevaluate whether they want to live in an area with flood risk. A lot of sellers I worked with after the storm moved to non flood zones in neighboring Pasco County, but we also saw many people move out of state.”

Last year, Pasco County experienced the third-highest net inflow in the country, with about 20,000 new residents. In Pasco County, just 18.1% of residences are at risk of heavy flooding, whereas in Pinellas County, the percentage is 35.8%.

The net outflow in Harris County, Texas, increased from 22,035 in 2023 to 31,165 in 2024—the second most acceleration among counties at high risk of flooding. In Harris County, nearly one in three households (31.3%) have a high risk of flooding. However, Houston also faces additional climatic dangers, such as intense heat, with 100% of Harris County homes having a high risk of heat. Additionally, the region has seen periods of extremely low temperatures, such as the Great Texas Freeze of 2021, which resulted in extensive power disruptions.

“People are always nervous about flooding in Houston, but it’s no longer the top concern like it was after Hurricane Harvey,” said local Redfin Premier real estate agent Roze Swartz. “I’m working with a lot of home sellers who moved to Texas from the West Coast during the pandemic and now want to leave because Houston isn’t what they expected—they don’t like the extreme heat or the politics. They want to go hiking or kayaking on a whim, but Houstonians pretty much stay indoors from May to September due to the heat. A lot of out-of-towners are cashing out their equity and moving back home.”

Another consideration is affordability. During the global homebuying boom, house prices in the Sun Belt, which encompasses Florida and Texas, skyrocketed. They are still far greater than they were prior to the epidemic, but they are no longer expanding at an exponential rate.

“A lot of people moved to Texas during the pandemic because it was relatively affordable, but property taxes and insurance costs have gone up so much that some homeowners are being forced to sell,” Swartz said. “I just met a seller who bought her home a year ago and now has to sell it because she can no longer afford her monthly payments, which isn’t an uncommon situation. I even have one seller who went into foreclosure.”

According to a 2024 Redfin research, Florida is home to three of the five main metro areas whose property tax costs have climbed the most since before the epidemic, while Texas has the highest effective property tax rates in the country. The premiums for homeowners insurance are higher than average in both states.

Some Houston locals are relocating to the suburbs, while others are leaving the state. The highest net inflow in the nation occurred last year when 23,919 more people moved into Montgomery area, Texas, a low-flood-risk area north of Houston. In Montgomery County, just 14.7% of residences are at high danger of flooding.

Florida Residents Are Most Likely to Relocate Due to Climate Risk

According to an Ipsos survey commissioned by Redfin in May 2025, people of Florida are more inclined to relocate due to climate danger than residents of Texas.

In the study, about 1,200 American renters and homeowners who intend to relocate within the next year were asked why. “Concern for natural disasters or climate risks in my previous area” was the most frequent response among Floridians, followed by “want more space” and “for lower childcare costs.”

The most frequent answers from respondents in Texas were “want more space,” “upgrade to a better home or neighborhood,” and “for lower rental/home prices.” The option “concern for natural disasters or climate risks in my previous area” ranked fifth overall and seventh among respondents from Texas.

In 132 of the 310 high-risk counties for flooding that Redfin examined, more residents left than in the previous year. This indicates that almost all of the 178 high-risk counties that remained witnessed net inflows (two counties saw net migration of 0). Texas and Florida account for a large number of the high-risk counties that had net inflows.

Last year, 11,661 additional individuals moved into St. Johns County, FL, which is located directly south of Jacksonville. This is the highest net influx of any county at high risk of flooding. With a net influx of 10,467, Fort Bend County, Texas, which is located just outside of Houston, comes next, followed by Volusia County, FL, which is home to Daytona Beach, with a net inflow of 9,724.

The fact that there are still more individuals moving in than out may be explained by the fact that flood-prone areas with the largest net inflows are typically less expensive than flood-prone areas with the largest net outflows. In comparison to the $376,026 median house selling price in the high-risk counties with the highest net inflows, the median home sale price in the ten high-flood-risk counties with the largest net outflows is $437,239.

During the epidemic, out-of-towners (especially those from expensive places like California) flocked to Florida and Texas in search of warm weather and reasonably priced real estate. Additionally, migration is slowing even though many places still draw visitors from outside.

Last year, net inflows decreased in seven of the ten high-flood-risk counties with the highest net inflows:

Top 10 High-Flood-Risk Counties with the Largest Net Inflows (2024)

Note: The calculation of median sale price across the high-flood-risk counties with the largest 2024 net inflows includes nine counties; Sussex County, DE is excluded due to insufficient data.

Although the population of many flood-prone locations is still growing, more people are leaving than moving in. Immigration plays a major role in that. In 2024, Miami-Dade County’s population increased 2.3% to 2.8 million, surpassing the rise of the national population. Net international migration of 123,835, the greatest of any county in the country, helps to explain that. The total population of six of the ten high-flood-risk counties with the biggest domestic net outflows in 2024 increased.

“Many of the Americans who left flood-prone areas last year were replaced by immigrants, who in the past were able to evacuate to shelters when disaster struck,” said Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin “But with the government cracking down on immigration enforcement, some immigrants are now hesitant to leave their homes during storms because they are afraid they could be detained.”

In 2024, the population of many flood-prone areas increased, but in 2025, the Trump Administration’s immigration crackdown may reverse that trend. The Miami agency Linares claimed that throughout the previous eight months, he has witnessed a notable decline in foreign business.

“Before I had homebuyers from Venezuela, Colombia, Brazil—any Spanish-speaking country you can think of,” he said. “They are non-existent in Miami now. We’re also seeing fewer people move in from Canada.”

To read more, click here.