Will 2026 be the year that mortgage rates start to ease in a meaningful way? That’s a question many potential homebuyers are asking themselves.
According to a report by Investopedia, mortgage rate forecasts for 2026 point to only modest declines. Most projections, in fact, keep rates in low 6% range. And, even should the Fed cut rates in 2026, mortgage rates don’t always move along with the Fed rate.
They can rise or fall based on other forces.
Investopedia said that buying when the potential homebuyer is financially ready and has found the right home can matter more than perfectly timing mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rates Can Be Unpredictable
Part of the challenge, Investopedia said, is how unpredictable mortgage rates can be.
Rates are determined via a wide range of forces, from inflation trends and housing data to movements in the bond market. While the Fed’s benchmark rate has a direct impact on savings accounts and credit cards, its influence on mortgage rates is more indirect.
Most forecasts suggest mortgage rates will remain clustered in the lower 6% range throughout the year, Investopedia noted. It compiled its projections from six sources: Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, the National Association of Realtors, the National Association of Home Builders, Wells Fargo, and mortgage analytics firm Curinos.
Investopedia said that waiting for the Fed to act usually isn’t a good homebuying strategy and that with inflation and the labor market sending mixed signals, the Fed’s path forward remains uncertain.
Fed Policy, Rates Have a Limited Link
More important is the limited link between Fed policy and mortgage rates, Investopedia said.
The federal funds rate can influence some of the forces that shape mortgage rates. But, it doesn’t directly determine them, Investopedia said, and the two can even move in opposite directions.
Investopedia said that’s why relying on Fed cuts to lower current mortgage rates is risky. Reductions could help ease rates, but it’s far from a sure thing, and mortgage rates could even move higher after Fed cuts.
Should potential homebuyers act in 2026 or wait?
Investopedia said that one risk of waiting is that even modest declines in mortgage rates could bring more buyers into play from the sidelines.
“With expectations for rates to drift lower into 2026, […] that could drive increased demand and heightened competition for what’s available,” said Rich Martin, Director of Real Estate Lending Solutions at Curinos.
Martin cautioned against waiting for a “perfect” rate that may never arrive.
“My advice is to buy if you find the right house,” he said.
