CoreLogic has updated its Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for April 2024. In April, annual home price appreciation in the United States remained above 5%, with three states seeing double-digit gains.
By next spring, national price growth is expected to drop to 3.4%, with only a few states experiencing increases of more than 6%. This slow cooling reflects not only an increase in the quantity of properties on the market in some regions of the country, but also increased 30-year fixed-rate mortgages—which remain over 7%—a major contributor to America’s ongoing housing affordability challenges.
“Home price growth continues to slow, as a comparison with a strong 2023 spring is still impacting year-over-year differences,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist for CoreLogic. “Nevertheless, the April uptick in mortgage rates to this year’s high has cooled some of the typical spring homebuyer demand, which pulled monthly gains of 1.1% below the March-to-April average.”
Key Findings:
- U.S. single-family home prices (including distressed sales) increased by 5.3% year over year in April 2024 compared with April 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.1% compared with March 2024.
- In April, the annual appreciation of detached properties (5.7%) was 2 percentage points higher than that of attached properties (3.7%).
- CoreLogic’s forecast shows annual U.S. home price gains relaxing to 3.4% in April 2025.
- San Diego posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country’s 10 highlighted metro areas in April, at 9.9%. Miami saw the next-highest gain at 9.7%.
- Among states, New Hampshire ranked first for annual appreciation in April (up by 12%), followed by New Jersey (up by 11%) and South Dakota (up by 10.8%). No state recorded year-over-year home price losses.
Home Price Growth Expected to Moderate by Spring 2025
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI) predicts that Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL (70%-plus probability) will experience a significant fall in property values during the next 12 months. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA; Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA; Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL; and Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL are all at high risk of price drops.
“The home price slowing also highlights buyers’ increased sensitivity to rising interest rates, as well as the anticipation that presumed lower rates down the road will help ease the affordability crunch,” Hepp said. “Also, the price cooling is more pronounced in markets where there has been an influx of inventory and/or new construction, as well as those where additional homeownership costs (such as insurance, taxes and HOA fees) have risen relatively faster.”
The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring May 2024 data, is scheduled to be issued on July 2, 2024.
To read the full report, including more data, charts, and methodology, click here.
