Realtor.com has produced a new analysis ahead of the November presidential election that attempts to forecast how demographic changes can alter the political landscape using proprietary data on county-level 2020 election results and geographic home shopping trends. In addition to changing views on important issues like housing affordability for both homeowners and renters, shifting opinions on these issues could influence the outcome of this presidential election. Additionally, state-to-state migration may influence the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
“The influence of migration on election outcomes is a compelling topic of discussion, sparking interest in how shifting populations might reshape the political landscape, ” said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com. “As more people move across state lines, their voting habits could have the potential to sway election outcomes, especially in crucial swing states, where even small changes in the electorate can tip the scales. This dynamic raises important questions about how migration trends could influence the future of American politics this year and beyond.”
This analysis draws attention to potential migration-related factors that could interact with voter preferences on important issues to impact the 2024 presidential election. The electoral landscape in the U.S. is dynamic due to the fact that individuals and opinions are ever-evolving. According to research, a state is expected to trend redder in the 2024 election if it experiences a greater influx of traffic from red-leaning shoppers than from blue-leaning shoppers and has a higher retention rate of red-leaning local home shoppers than blue-leaning ones.
On the other hand, a state is expected to grow more blue in the 2024 election if it attracts more blue-predicted inflow traffic than red-predicted influx traffic and has a greater retention rate among blue-predicted local home consumers.
The new report found the following possibilities for the 2024 Presidential election:
- Four blue states—Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine—could trend bluer;
- Seven blue states—California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, and Washington—could trend redder.
- Three red states—Alaska, Florida, and Ohio—could shift bluer;
- Twelve red states—Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming—could trend redder.
- Three swing states—Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina—could trend redder;
- Two swing states—Wisconsin and Nevada—could shift bluer.
- Two swing states—Michigan and Pennsylvania—have mixed population shifts that do not suggest a clear direction—red or blue—for the local electorate.
Out-of-State Migration Preferences
A state is a more desirable out-of-state destination for blue purchasers when it sees a greater number of blue consumers than red shoppers, and vice versa. Tennessee is the most popular destination for out-of-state red buyers, with a difference of 0.5 percentage points, but New Jersey has the highest differential, at 1.4 percentage points, between blue and red influx rates. North Carolina (5.1%), Texas (5.8%), and Florida (12.9%) are the top states in which blue homebuyers travel.
North Carolina (5.3%), Florida (12.8%), and Texas (5.8%) are also among the most popular places for buyers of red homes. It’s interesting to note that both blue and red out-of-state house buyers expressed a strong desire to purchase in the South, presumably attracted by the region’s more temperate climate and reasonably priced real estate markets.
Where do blue and red house hunters remain?
The willingness of the current population to remain in a place defines its desirability to prospective homebuyers as much as its capacity to draw in new immigrants. The analysis determines the percentage of in-state blue and red buyers who opt to look for properties within their own state in order to estimate the retention rate for these buyers for each state. When compared to the rate of red consumers, New Mexico retains the highest percentage of in-state blue shoppers, while New York retains the highest percentage of in-state red home shoppers.
To read the full report, including more data, charts, and methodology, click here.
