Where Are Home Prices Headed?

“We’ve just passed the Best Time to Sell […], but we’re moving into the heart of home sales season,” said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, “pending home sales picked up in February, but remained lower than one year ago, a trend that continued in the March Realtor.com pending data, suggesting more softness ahead.”

In March, existing-home sales fell, the National Association of REALTORS reported. All four of the main U.S. regions saw a decline in sales. Sales decreased in the Midwest and South, rose in the West, and remained the same in the Northeast year over year.

Key Findings:

  • Existing-home sales slipped 5.9% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million. Sales slowed 2.4% from one year ago.
  • The median existing-home sales price climbed 2.7% from March 2024 to $403,700, an all-time high for the month of March and the 21st consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
  • The inventory of unsold existing homes jumped 8.1% from the previous month to 1.33 million at the end of March, or the equivalent of 4.0 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace.

Single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and cooperatives are all included in the total number of completed existing-home sales, which decreased 5.9% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million in March. Sales decreased 2.4% year-over-year (from 4.12 million in March 2024).

“Home buying and selling remained sluggish in March due to the affordability challenges associated with high mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Residential housing mobility, currently at historical lows, signals the troublesome possibility of less economic mobility for society.”

U.S. Housing Supply Ticks Up

At the end of March, there were 1.33 million units in total housing inventory, up 8.1% from February and 19.8% from the same month last year (1.11 million). At the current sales pace, unsold inventory has increased to a 4.0-month supply, up from 3.5 months in February and 3.2 months in March 2024.

In March, the median existing-home price3 for all property types was $403,700, which was 2.7% higher than the $392,900 median price a year earlier. Price rises were observed in all four U.S. regions.

“In a stark contrast to the stock and bond markets, household wealth in residential real estate continues to reach new heights,” said Yun. “With mortgage delinquencies at near-historical lows, the housing market is on solid footing. A small deceleration in home price gains, which was slightly below wage-growth increases in March, would be a welcome improvement for affordability. With real estate asset valuation at $52 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, each percentage point gain in home prices adds more than $500 billion to the household balance sheet.”

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Demetria C. Lester

Demetria C. Lester is a reporter for MortgagePoint (formerly DS News and MReport) with more than 10 years of writing and editing experience. She has served as content coordinator and copy editor for the Los Angeles Daily News and the Orange County Register, in addition to 11 other Southern California publications. A former editor-in-chief at Northlake College and staff writer at her alma mater, the University of Texas at Arlington, she has covered events such as the Byron Nelson and Pac-12 Conferences, progressing into her freelance work with the Dallas Wings and D Magazine. Currently located in Dallas, Lester is a jazz aficionado, Harry Potter fanatic, and avid record collector. She can be reached at demetria.lester@thefivestar.com.
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