Recent trends in consumer credit risk point to a widening gap amongst American consumers, with some exhibiting greater financial resilience and others dealing with more difficult circumstances. TransUnion’s recently published Q3 2025 Credit Industry data Report (CIIR) provides these data and details how these changes are impacting lending practices in important credit markets.
The percentage of people in the lowest risk super prime credit risk tier has steadily increased, from 37.1% in Q3 2019 to 40.9% in Q3 2025, according to recent trends in consumer credit risk distribution. As the credit market as a whole grew, the proportion of super prime borrowers rose, and there are currently over 16 million more super prime borrowers overall than there were in 2019.
This growing trend is indicative of top-tier customers’ ongoing financial security. In the meanwhile, following significant drops in 2020 and 2021, when many consumers were able to pay off debt and lower credit account delinquencies during a period of lower spending and pandemic-related relief programs, the subprime category has progressively recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
We are seeing a divergence in consumer credit risk, with more individuals moving toward either end of the credit risk spectrum,” said Jason Laky, EVP and Head of Financial Services for TransUnion. “While super prime has steadily grown since the pandemic, subprime has returned to pre-pandemic levels—leaving the middle tiers increasingly thinner. This shift suggests that while many consumers are navigating the current economic climate well, others may be facing financial strain.”
Super Prime Consumer Share Continues to Rise as Subprime Returns to Pre-Pandemic Levels
| Metrics | Q3 2019 | Q3 2020 | Q3 2021 | Q3 2022 | Q3 2023 | Q3 2024 | Q3 2025 |
| Super prime | 37.1% | 38.9% | 38.4% | 38.3% | 39.3% | 40.3% | 40.9% |
| Prime plus | 17.6% | 17.9% | 19.2% | 18.9% | 18.0% | 17.4% | 16.9% |
| Prime | 17.4% | 17.5% | 18.0% | 17.6% | 17.0% | 16.3% | 15.6% |
| Near prime | 13.5% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 12.2% |
| Subprime | 14.5% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 14.4% |
Recent action in the credit card and auto lending sectors clearly reflects the shift toward super prime and subprime categories. These two tiers saw the largest year-over-year growth in both new account originations and total balances, exceeding all others by a wide margin. The need for customized risk strategies throughout the credit range is shown by this disparity in credit behavior, which also shows changing consumer dynamics.
“As consumers increasingly shift toward the extremes of the credit risk spectrum, it’s no surprise we’re seeing the sharpest growth in credit card and auto activity within those tiers,” said Michele Raneri, VP and Head of U.S. Research and Consulting at TransUnion. “To navigate these changes effectively, lenders should leverage advanced tools—like access to trended data—to better assess evolving risk profiles.”
Q3 2025 CIIR Credit Card Summary
- Credit card origination volumes—reported one quarter in arrears—increased for the third consecutive quarter, rising 9% YoY to 20.5 million in Q2 2025. This represented the largest YoY increase in two years. This expansion was driven by growth in the super prime and subprime segments.
- Average new account credit lines decreased by 1.6% YoY. Lower credit lines were seen across all risk tiers, led by subprime, which saw new lines 5.0% lower YoY.
- Consumer-level delinquencies saw another YoY decline, with 90+ DPD rates falling to 2.37%, down 7 basis points YoY. Delinquency improvements were also seen when examining 30+ DPD and 60+ DPD rates, pointing to an overall strengthening of consumer credit health and more responsible payment behavior, along with better-quality originations driven by adjustments in underwriting standards.
“The credit card industry continued its steady expansion in Q3 2025, with origination volumes from Q2 rising for the third consecutive quarter, driven by consistent growth in both super prime and subprime segments,” said Paul Siegfried, SVP of Credit Card Business Leader at TransUnion. Total new account credit lines also increased, while lenders managed risk through smaller credit limits. Encouragingly, delinquency rates continued to improve, signaling healthier consumer credit behavior and reinforcing the impact of more disciplined and consistent lending practices.”
Credit Card and Auto Originations & Total Outstanding Balances, YoY Growth & More
| YoY% Change by Risk Tier | Credit Card | Auto | ||
| Originations* | Total Balances | Originations* | Total Balances | |
| Super prime | 9.4% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 4.1% |
| Prime plus | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | -2.5% |
| Prime | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | -2.7% |
| Near prime | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% |
| Subprime | 21.1% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 6.5% |
Q3 2025 CIIR Mortgage Loan Summary
- Mortgage originations ticked up 8.8% year-over-year in Q2 2025. This growth was mainly driven by growth in rate and term refi, up 101% YoY and cash-out refinances increasing 23% over the same period.
- Mortgage delinquencies edged up in Q3 2025, with the consumer-level 60+ DPD rate increasing to 1.36%, up from 1.24% one year prior. FHA loans continued to make up the largest share of these delinquencies, although VA loans saw the greatest YoY increase, up 35% YoY.
- The home equity market saw YoY growth for the fifth consecutive quarter, rising 14% in Q2 2025. While Gen X and Baby Boomers still account for the highest shares of home equity originations, Gen Z saw the most significant YoY growth, up 28% and 23% for HELOCs and HELOANs respectively.
“The housing finance landscape continues to evolve, shaped by shifting demographics and an increasingly dynamic monetary policy environment,” said Satyan Merchant, SVP of Automotive and Mortgage Business Leader at TransUnion. “As interest rates begin to ease, mortgage activity is showing signs of recovery, supported by improving affordability conditions. We remain closely attuned to the potential for further rate reductions should the Federal Reserve proceed with additional cuts. At the same time, rising delinquency rates—particularly within certain borrower segments—underscore the importance of maintaining a vigilant and proactive approach to risk monitoring and portfolio management.”
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