Annual expenditures on home improvements, maintenance, and repairs are projected to maintain a downward trend until mid-2027, as indicated by the most recent Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) from the Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS). It is anticipated that the year-over-year (YoY) increase in renovation and repair expenditures will decelerate to just 0.5% in Q2 of 2027.
The recent stagnation in remodeling permits and retail expenditure on building materials indicates a slowdown in renovation activities. Our projections indicate that this trend will result in a third consecutive quarter of declining YoY growth, with spending anticipated to reach $519 billion by mid-2027.
“Growth in remodeling permitting and retail spending on building products have flattened recently, suggesting that renovation activity is cooling,” said Rachel Bogardus Drew, Director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Center. “Our forecast suggests this will lead to a third straight quarter of decelerating year-over-year growth, with spending projected to be $519 billion through mid-2027.”
Additionally, a decrease in housing starts and overall economic uncertainty are hindering more substantial increases in remodeling expenditures. As long as home sales remain at their current low levels, remodeling spending is expected to continue at this rate.
“Reduced housing starts and broader economic uncertainty are also limiting stronger gains in remodeling spending,” said Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Center. “Until home sales rebound from current low levels, remodeling expenditures are likely to stay at this pace.”
The LIRA is published by the Remodeling Futures Program at the JCHS of Harvard University roughly three weeks following the conclusion of each quarter. The next LIRA will be released on October 22, 2026.
