According to a new study on recent homebuyers, the nation’s housing affordability crisis may be entering a new phase.
Truework’s 2026 Recent Homebuyers Report, Homeownership on the Edge, report found that 85% of recent homebuyers with a mortgage said refinancing within the next three years is important to their financial health. That’s up from 56% in a similar 2025 survey.
Half said the stakes are even higher, that their monthly mortgage payment won’t be sustainable unless they can refinance to a lower rate.
Truework, a leading platform for income and employment verification for mortgage lenders, said it surveyed 1,000 Americans who bought a home in the past 24 months and found that many recent buyers entered the housing market believing that current mortgage rates would be temporary.
It said that six in 10 (60%) expected rates to fall after buying their homes, and almost three-quarters (73%) planned from the beginning to refinance once rates declined. Truework noted that for many households, refinancing wasn’t simply a financial opportunity, it was part of the original plan for making homeownership affordable.
Planning Financial Future
“For decades, the conversation around affordability has focused on whether buyers could qualify for a mortgage,” noted Randy Lightbody, Head of Mortgage at Truework. “However, our research shows that many buyers are qualifying based on one payment while planning their financial future around another, even gambling on a rate cut that might never come. Affordability is no longer just about getting into a home. It’s about staying there, and many of today’s buyers are making life-changing decisions based on a bet that may not pay off.”
Truework said that the financial strain isn’t just changing household budgets, it’s influencing everyday decisions and long-term plans:
- 32% have cut spending on basic necessities.
- 20% have reduced retirement savings contributions.
- 13% have considered delaying having children because of their mortgage.
Many recent buyers are living on a financial tightrope, with scant room to absorb an unexpected financial setback.
- 88% say at least one common financial setback could jeopardize their mortgage payment.
- 67% say losing a job or income would put their mortgage at serious risk.
- 44% say an unexpected medical expense could make it difficult to keep up with their mortgage payments.
If refinancing isn’t possible within the next three years, Truework noted that many buyers expect they’ll need to make even greater financial tradeoffs, moving beyond minor belt-tightening measures:
- 40% expect to take on a second job or additional work.
- 22% expect to rely on credit cards to cover everyday expenses.
- 21% expect to withdraw money from retirement savings just to stay afloat.
Compared with Gen X buyers, Truework said that millennials were more likely to buy their homes expecting mortgage rates to fall, and are now facing the greatest financial pressure if those expectations don’t materialize.
- 79% planned to refinance when they purchased their home, compared with 64% of Gen X buyers.
- 53% say their mortgage won’t be sustainable without refinancing, compared with 43% of Gen X buyers.
- 45% expect to take on a second job or side hustle if refinancing isn’t possible, compared with 35% of Gen X buyers.
“The true cost of homeownership extends far beyond the purchase price or the monthly mortgage payment. It’s showing up in the everyday decisions families are making, whether that’s putting off having children, delaying retirement, taking on additional work, or simply cutting back on basic necessities,” Lightbody said. “That’s a different way of thinking about affordability, and one that’s becoming increasingly important in today’s housing market.”
