Americana has long held a fascination for Old West ghost towns, symbols of a bygone day. Now Joybird has redefined that term for the modern age. In their new study, “ghost towns” are modern metro areas on the edge of decline due to decreasing population and increasing home and retail vacancies.
What Defines a Ghost Town?
To create their list of America’s modern-day ghost towns, Joybird analyzed data from the U.S. Census, Migration Patterns, and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), mapping this against population declines, migration outflows, drops in new building permits, and rising vacancy rates for the 100 largest U.S. cities.
The seven key factors in determining ghost towns are:
- Percent change in population size (2020-2023)
- Percent of young people who moved away (ages 16-26)
- Rental vacancy rate
- Homeowner vacancy rate
- Percent of vacant homes empty for two years or longer
- Retail vacancy rate
- Percent change in new building permits (2022-2023)
Each of the above is a contributing factor to a new ghost town, adding to a potential downward spiral. A city loses its vibrancy due to a shrinking population, while high rental and homeowner vacancy rates equal empty properties. Homes vacant for longer than two years show a pattern of long-term decline, while retail vacancy rates impact the local economy and decreasing new building permits show lesser investments.
Top Potential Ghost Towns in the U.S.
The 10 U.S. cities most likely to become ghost towns are:
- Augusta, GA
- Winston-Salem, NC
- St. Louis
- Detroit
- Baton Rouge, LA
- Jackson, MS
- New Orleans
- Houston
- San Francisco
- Scranton, PA
And the most likely ghost town is…Augusta, Georgia. The home of the Master’s Golf Tournament has the fourth-highest rental vacancy rate (8.9%) of the cities studied, and a retail vacancy rate (5.9%) that’s 34% higher than the list average. And that’s not even including that 27% of Augusta’s vacant homes have been empty for two years or more.
The third most likely ghost town is St. Louis. At 6% retail vacancy rate, the Gateway to the West is 35% higher than the study’s average. The town had the second-worst population decline between 2020 and 2023 (-6.6%), which might explain why new building permits between 2022 and 2023 decreased by 22%.
Following St. Louis is Detroit, the fourth most likely ghost town, where nearly 30% of vacant homes have sat empty for two years or more. The city’s population is falling (down 1% between 2020 and 2023), and new home-building permits decreased 15% in just one year (2022 to 2023).
Louisiana takes the crown for most cities in the top ten, with Baton Rouge (#5) and New Orleans (#7). The former has the second-highest homeowner vacancy rate in the study (1.5%), while the latter’s population shrank by over 5% between 2020 and 2023, which might explain why 29% of its vacant homes have sat empty for two years or longer.
The Least Ghostly Potential Towns
On a happier note, Joybird listed the towns where things were more lively:
- Madison, WI
- Palm Bay, FL
- Toledo, OH
- San Diego
- Provo, UT
- Fort Myers, FL
- Lakeland, FL
- Boston
- Seattle
- Austin
No ghostbusters needed in Madison, WI: it stands strong as the least likely U.S. city to go ghostly. Mad City boasts a homeowner vacancy rate of just 0.3%, a stunning 91% below the study’s average, with a rental vacancy rate of 2.5% (third-lowest in the study), and a retail vacancy rate 21% lower than the national average.
Florida takes its time in the sun with three of the top 10 least likely ghost towns: Palm Bay (#2), Fort Myers (#6), and Lakeland (#7). Palm Bay had the second-largest population increase in the study, a growth of 13.2% between 2020 and 2023. Fort Myers was close behind with a 12.7% population increase, while Lakeland’s population grew by 8.6% over the same period.
A 22.7% rise in new building permits between 2022 and 2023 landed San Diego in fourth place. Provo, UT is right behind them in fifth place, boasting the lowest rental vacancy rate in the study (2.3%), with only 3.8% of their vacant homes empty for two years or more.
Rounding out the top ten least likely ghost towns is Austin, TX, thanks to a relatively low retail vacancy rate of 3.4%. Austin looks to be a hub for Gen Z, with only 30% of young adults between the ages of 16 and 26 years old moving away, compared to 47% (Colorado Springs, CO) or 43% (Daytona Beach, FL).
America’s Top Ghost Towns by Category
Joybird listed the top cities with the highest scores in four key ranking categories:
Cities with the largest drops in population between 2020 and 2023:
- #1: San Francisco, with a 7.4% drop
- Runners-up: St. Louis, MO (-6.6%), Jackson, MS (-6.5%), New York, NY (-6.2%), New Orleans, LA (-5.2%)
Cities with the largest homeowner vacancy rates:
- #1: Lakeland, FL, with a 1.6% vacancy rate
- Runners-up: Baton Rouge, LA (1.5%), Dayton, OH (1.4%), Stockton, CA (1.4%), Greenville, SC (1.3%)
Cities with the largest retail vacancy rates:
- #1: Riverside, CA, with a 6.7% vacancy rate
- Runners-up: Poughkeepsie, NY (6.6%), Harrisburg, PA (6.4%), Phoenix, AZ (6.3%), Tucson, AZ (6.1%)
Cities with the highest percentage of homes vacant for over two years:
- #1: Dayton, OH, with a 46.2% vacancy rate
- Runners-up: Jackson, MS (44.8%), Buffalo, NY (40.1%), Scranton, PA (37.9%), Pittsburgh, PA (34.3%)
Lastly, in terms of new home construction, or lack thereof, Akron, OH takes the lead. The City of Invention had a staggering 69% drop in new building permits between 2022 and 2023.
While sometimes seeming dire, none of this is forecasting, thankfully. Hopefully the impacted cities will focus on turning around these indicators and busting their ghosts. And although Lakeland, FL is one of the least likely cities to become a ghost town, it still has its struggles, such as the highest homeowner vacancy rate in the study at 1.6%
Methodology: Starting with the 100 largest U.S. cities, Joybird applied rankings of seven factors regarding population decline, migration outflows, new construction, and vacancy rates; these indicate the city is losing residents, and that homes are being left empty. They then assigned a score from 0 to 5 for each factor, with 5 representing the most “ghostly” conditions. Those scores were then totaled to give each city a final score from 0 to 50; the higher the score, the more ghostly the city.
Click here to read more on Joybird’s study, and dive deeper into the data in their interactive table of the 100 cities and their scores.
