According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s 2023 Commercial Real Estate Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes, some 20%—an estimated $929 billion—of the $4.7 trillion of outstanding commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors will mature in 2024, representing a 28% increase from the $729 billion that matured in 2023.
“The lack of transactions and other activity last year, coupled with built-in extension options and lender and servicer flexibility, has meant that many loans that were set to mature in 2023 have been extended or otherwise modified and will now mature in 2024, 2026, 2028 or in other coming years,” said Jamie Woodwell, Head of Commercial Real Estate Research at MBA. “These extensions and modifications have pushed the amount of CRE mortgages maturing this year from $659 billion to $929 billion.”
Woodwell continued, “Commercial mortgages tend to be relatively long-lived, spreading maturities out over several years. Volatility and uncertainty around interest rates, a lack of clarity on property values, and questions about some property fundamentals have suppressed sales and financing transactions. This year’s maturities, coupled with greater clarity in those and other areas, should begin to break the logjam in the markets.”
The loan maturities vary significantly by investor and property type groups. The remaining balance of multifamily and healthcare mortgages held or insured by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, and Ginnie Mae will mature in 2024 by just $28 billion (3%) of the total. In 2024, $59 billion (8%) of the existing mortgage balances held by life insurance companies will mature.
On the other hand, the amount of mortgages that are expected to mature in 2024 are as follows: an estimated $441 billion (25%) of the outstanding balance of mortgages held by depositories; roughly $234 billion (31%) in CMBS, CLOs, or other ABS; and approximately $168 billion (36%) of the mortgages owned by credit organizations, other lenders, or warehouses.
In 2024, 12% of mortgages secured by multifamily properties, 17 percent by retail properties, and 18 percent by healthcare properties would mature according to the kind of property. A quarter of the loans secured by office buildings, as well as two-thirds of the industrial and three-quarters of the hotel/motel loans, are scheduled to mature in 2024.
The listed dollar amounts represent the principal sums that were outstanding as of December 31, 2023. The amounts at the time of maturity will typically be lower than those shown here because the majority of loans pay down principle.
To read the full report, including more data, charts, and methodology, click here.
