Renters are voting with their feet, according to recent data, and not every rental market is the same. The national median asking rent dropped to $1,686, down 1.5% year-over-year (YoY) and the 34th consecutive month of declines, according to the Realtor.com May Rental Report. However, the Realtor.com 2026 Q1 Rental Cross-Market Demand data paints a clearer picture: some cities are holding onto their renters, while others are being defined by the people moving in from elsewhere.
Key Findings:
- For the 50 major metro areas, May 2026 is the 34th consecutive month that 0–2 bedroom residences have declined year over year. In comparison to a year earlier, the national median asking rent decreased by $26, or 1.5%.
- In the 50 biggest metropolitan areas, the median asking rent was $1,686, which was $248 (17.2%) more than the pre-pandemic level but $78 (-4.4%) less than its peak in summer 2022.
- All size categories saw a decrease in median rent: studio: $1,422, down $27 (-1.9%) YoY; one-bedroom: $1,573, down $24 (-1.5%) YoY; two-bedroom: $1,885, down $28 (-1.5%) YoY.
“Local loyalty in markets like Las Vegas reflects renters finding real value close to home as rents soften. In markets like Raleigh, strong job opportunities and relative affordability are pulling in renters from across the country,” said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com. “Renters and landlords alike can use this cross-market demand data to see which markets are magnets and which are anchors. Combined with pricing trends, these data not only signal how competitive a rental market is, they show whether that rental demand is homegrown or coming from outside of the market.”
When it comes to local renter loyalty, Las Vegas leads the country. 70% of Las Vegas residents’ online rental searches in the first quarter of 2026 remained inside the metro, which is the greatest percentage among the 50 largest cities. The top five are completed by Austin, San Antonio, Houston, and San Diego. These five areas stand out as renter-friendly locations where people have little incentive to go elsewhere due to decreasing rents, increased vacancy rates, robust job markets, and mild weather.
Locals Embracing These Rental Markets:
| Market | 2026 Q1 Traffic to: | 2020 Q1 Traffic to: | ||
| Local market | Out-of-metro market | Local market | Out-of-metro market | |
| Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV | 70.0 % | 30.0 % | 75.3 % | 24.7 % |
| Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas | 66.7 % | 33.3 % | 64.4 % | 35.7 % |
| San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas | 65.1 % | 34.9 % | 69.6 % | 30.4 % |
| Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, Texas | 64.6 % | 35.4 % | 53.3 % | 46.8 % |
| San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA | 64.3 % | 35.7 % | 62.0 % | 38.0 % |
Since 2020, local loyalty has also increased dramatically in a number of markets. Over a six-year period, Houston’s retention rate increased by 11 percentage points, from 53.3% to 64.6%. Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Kansas City, MO, all exhibit the similar pattern.
With an estimated 69.1% of rental views originating from outside the metro, Raleigh, NC, had the largest percentage of out-of-market rental demand in the first quarter of 2026. Renters from New York, Boston, and Washington, D.C. are drawn to Richmond, VA, Hartford, CT, Providence, RI, and Baltimore due to lower rents and robust employment opportunities in healthcare, finance, and technology. The most significant change over time occurred in Detroit, where out-of-market rental demand nearly doubled from 28.1% to 51.8% between 2020 and 2026 Q1.
Rental Markets Dominated Most by Newcomers:
| Market | 2026 Q1 Traffic from: | 2020 Q1 Traffic from: | ||
| Out-of-market renters | Local residents | Out-of-market renters | Local residents | |
| Raleigh-Cary, NC | 69.1 % | 30.9 % | 59.0 % | 41.0 % |
| Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT | 68.6 % | 31.4 % | 48.6 % | 51.4 % |
| Providence-Warwick, RI-MA | 65.7 % | 34.3 % | 52.8 % | 47.2 % |
| Richmond, VA | 64.7 % | 35.3 % | 52.5 % | 47.5 % |
| Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD | 64.4 % | 35.6 % | 48.6 % | 51.4 % |
Both trends are broken in San Francisco. Contrary to the national trend, rents there increased 1.2% year over year in May. While out-of-market demand to San Francisco increased from 43.1% to 64.1% throughout the same period, local loyalty increased from 44.0% in 2020 Q1 to 55.0% in 2026 Q1.
In the meantime, statistics indicate that less San Francisco residents are looking for rentals in general. The explanation can be completely unrelated to the rental market. According to the most recent Housing Vacancies and Homeownership data, San Francisco’s homeownership percentage increased from 49% to 51.7% in just one year. The number of people looking for rentals looks to be declining as a result of the AI and IT hiring surge, which seems to be turning tenants into owners.
“Two things appear to be happening in San Francisco’s rental market,” said Jiayi Xu, Economist at Realtor.com. “First, rising wealth tied to the AI boom may be enabling more renters to transition into homeownership, pulling them out of the rental search pool altogether. Second, the renters who remain are showing more settled behavior—less likely to be browsing other markets, and more focused on staying put. The post-pandemic reshuffling, it seems, has run its course.”
Note: Rental units include apartments as well as private rentals (condos, townhomes, single-family homes).
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