More residents are leaving fire-prone parts of rural Northern California than are moving in, bucking the national trend of Americans moving into fire-prone parts of the nation, according to a new report from Redfin.
Roughly two-thirds of the fire-prone counties in the U.S. are gaining more residents than they’re losing, Redfin reported.
Tuolumne County, California, is in the Yosemite foothills and about 170 miles east of San Francisco, and it lost 775 more residents than it gained last year. While that’s a modest net outflow, it’s the largest among the fire-prone counties in the Redfin analysis.
It also marks the first time the county has experienced a net outflow in a decade, except 2022, Redfin reported.
Sutter County, California, located roughly 40 miles north of Sacramento, had the second-largest outflow of residents in 2025, losing 754 more residents than it gained—the third straight year of outflow from the area, Redfin noted.
Another Northern California county—Lassen in far northeastern California and known for its rugged outdoor recreation—came in fourth, with a net outflow of 502 residents in 2024, marking its eighth straight year of population losses. Starr County, Texas, about 70 miles from the city of McAllen on the Mexico border, is third at -603.
Persistent Wildfire Risk
Unlike many fire-prone parts of the U.S. that continue to attract new residents, these Northern California counties face a combination of rising insurance costs, limited housing and job growth, and geographic isolation, along with persistent wildfire risk. Those challenges are outweighing the area’s traditional appeal: outdoor recreation, scenic landscapes and relatively affordable homes.
Redfin noted that the population losses also follow several years of increasingly destructive wildfires, particularly in Tuolumne County.
“Wildfire risk alone is rarely enough to deter people from living somewhere. But when the area is isolated and also lacks job opportunities, it’s tough to justify living there,” said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s Chief Economist. “By contrast, fire-prone places that also happen to have booming job markets and proximity to major city centers are still attracting new residents, because those advantages often outweigh concerns about wildfire risk.”
The other fire-prone counties with the biggest net outflow of residents are mostly rural, inland parts of the country, Redfin said.
Summit County, Utah, home to Park City, comes in fifth, followed by Taylor County, Florida, near Tallahassee, and Lea County, New Mexico, an oil producer that borders Texas. One more southeastern New Mexico county is on the list, along with two small-town Idaho counties.
Redfin said it’s also worth noting that Summit County, Utah (Park City) and Blaine County, Idaho (Sun Valley) are expensive ski towns; average people are increasingly priced out of them.
Biggest Net Inflow
Pinal County, Arizona, located between Phoenix and Tucson in central Arizona, gained 21,315 more residents than it lost in 2025—the biggest net inflow of any fire-prone county in the U.S., by far, Redfin said
Washington County, Utah, home to St. George and Zion National Park, had the second-biggest net inflow, gaining 4,714 more residents than it lost last year. Redfin said that Parker County, Texas, west of Fort Worth, comes in third, with a net inflow of 4,614.
Of the 308 fire-prone counties in the analysis, Redfin said that 204 are gaining more residents than they’re losing. And the fire-prone counties that are gaining residents are seeing much bigger net inflows than the net outflows mentioned above.
Redfin said that unlike the rural parts of Northern California that are losing residents, the fire-prone parts of America that are gaining population tend to offer economic and lifestyle advantages that outweigh wildfire risk for many people.
