According to new data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), pending home sales in September 2025 decreased 0.9% year-over-year (YoY) and did not change from the previous month.
“Contract signings matched the second-strongest pace of the year,” said Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR. “However, signings have yet to fully reach the level needed for a healthy market despite mortgage rates reaching a one-year low. A record-high stock market and growing housing wealth in September were not enough to offset a likely softening job market.”
Quarterly Nationwide Housing Forecast
| Metrics | 2025 | 2026 |
| Existing-home sales | +3% | +14% |
| New home sales | +0% | +3% |
| Median home price | +1% | +4% |
| Mortgage rate | 6.7% | 6.0% |
| Job gains | 1.6 million | 2.0 million |
“Pending sales are expected to be up again in September though overall buyer activity remains low as we head into the fourth quarter,” said Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS. Lower rates have been bringing some buyers into the market, but according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the recent drop in rates has primarily increased refinance activity rather than purchase activity. Affordability is still a constraint even as rates have fallen to their lowest level in a year. And consumers are generally feeling more cautious amidst growing economic uncertainty.”
Sturtevant continued: “Looking ahead, sales will likely continue to be slow through the fourth quarter, but expect a lot of regional variation. Markets with stronger regional economies will see more robust buyer activity, while markets being hit by furloughs and layoffs could see a further pullback in home sales activity this winter.”
Existing-Home Sales
Additionally, in September 2025, existing-home sales increased and estimated 1.5%. The Midwest saw a decline in month-over-month sales, while the Northeast, South, and West saw increases. Sales in the Northeast, Midwest, and South increased (YoY), while those in the West stayed the same.
“As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales. Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales,” Yun said.
Note: The Pending Home Sales Index (PHS), a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Because a home goes under contract a month or two before it is sold, the Pending Home Sales Index generally leads Existing-Home Sales by a month or two.
Pending Home Sales for October 2025 will be released on Tuesday, November 25, 2025 at 10 a.m. Eastern.
To read more, click here.
