Consumer credit reporting agency TransUnion recently released its 2026 Credit Originations Forecast, highlighting continued momentum in originations for mortgages as well as for unsecured personal loans.
The company said growth trends come as forecasted demand for other credit products shows mixed performance. TransUnion released the originations forecast alongside its Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report (CIIR), which pointed to continued expansion in consumer lending at the end of 2025.
Transunion said the 2026 originations forecast points to mortgage and unsecured personal loans as the primary drivers of projected expansion. It noted that mortgage originations, both purchase and refinance, are set to extend the rebound of the past two years from near-record low levels, and unsecured personal loans are on pace for a third consecutive year of annual growth.
These shifts illustrate continued consumer demand for credit in 2026 across most products, although at slower levels of growth than in 2025 as the broader credit landscape continues to normalize. Charlie Wise, SVP, Research and Consulting at TransUnion, answered a few questions about the report for MortgagePoint.
Q: The forecast mentions moderate expansion in consumer lending in 2026, but slower than 2025’s rebound. What are the factors involved in that expansion?
Wise: Our forecast looks at the major credit products in the consumer wallet, including credit cards, auto loans, mortgages, and unsecured personal loans. We expect to see continued positive growth in origination volumes across most of these products in 2026, with the exception of auto loans where we forecast a modest -1.5% year-over-year (YoY) decrease. Major factors driving expansion across other products include continued strong demand for credit by consumers and an expected decline in interest rates.
Q: Why does Transunion expect uneven growth across credit products, and how will mortgages and unsecured loans play into that?
Demand for the various products in the consumer credit wallet is driven by different factors, including macroeconomic conditions as well as credit market conditions. Mortgage and unsecured personal loan originations are forecast to see healthy volume growth in 2026, by roughly 4% and 11%, respectively. Expected lower interest rates should drive higher demand for both purchase and refinance mortgages, while unsecured loans will continue to benefit from consumers seeking to refinance higher interest rate credit card balances onto lower interest rate loans.
Credit cards are forecast to see modest originations growth of 2% YoY following a surge in new cards opened in 2025. At the same time, auto loan originations are expected to drop as new vehicle sales are projected to slow in 2026 in the wake of the expired EV tax credit in late 2025, which pulled forward demand for electric vehicle purchases into last year.
Q: What factors will help credit markets normalize after pandemic-era volatility and high-inflation conditions?
Credit markets in recent years have been affected by uncertainty driven by geopolitical conflicts, shifting tariff policies, and continued increases in consumer prices. While none of these factors are likely to disappear in 2026, consumers and credit markets are generally looking for improved price stability, lower interest rates, and a stable employment situation to help reduce uncertainty and improve consumer confidence.
Q: How important would lower interest rates be in supporting housing credit?
Interest rates, as well as housing prices, are the most significant factors impacting mortgages and housing credit, as both contribute to housing affordability. Given that economists generally do not predict a material decrease in housing prices in 2026, the greatest opportunity for improved housing affordability for consumers is a decrease in interest rates, particularly the bellwether 30-year mortgage rate.
Outside of brief dips, the 30-year rate has generally remained above 6% for the last three+ years. A sustained drop in mortgage rates below 6% would potentially bring many prospective homebuyers, particularly first-time homebuyers, off the sidelines, as the cost of homeownership would be somewhat lower.
As well, mortgage rates below 6% would provide refinancing opportunities to the millions of recent homebuyers with higher interest rates, many currently above 7%, to lock in lower rates and materially lower their monthly mortgage payments.
Q: What factors will help ease mortgage rates in 2026?
Mortgage rates largely are driven by the 10-year Treasury rate, which is influenced by numerous factors, including inflation expectations, economic growth, and monetary policy. One of the key reasons that mortgage rates have not fallen to the same extent as the Fed Funds rate over the past year is that the inflation rate has remained above the Federal Reserve Board’s target 2% rate and is expected to remain above that level through 2026. To the extent that the inflation rate drops closer to the 2% rate over the next year, we are likely to see mortgage rates fall further and potentially into the 5-6% range.
Q: What kind of growth do you see in unsecured personal loans?
After significant originations growth of over 20% YoY in 2025, TransUnion is forecasting continued healthy originations unsecured personal loan (UPL) growth of roughly 11% YoY in 2026, which would make the total UPL originations in 2026 the highest annual volume on record. Demand for this credit product continues to be strong, as many consumers continue to see significant value in using UPL’s to consolidate higher interest rate credit card balances. As well, an increasing number of lower-risk Super Prime and Prime Plus borrowers are using UPL’s to finance larger-ticket expenses, such as home improvements, durable goods and vacations, based on the ease, speed, and convenience of opening these loan types.
