CPI housing inflation is anticipated to maintain its current rate until the end of 2026, with rent inflation projected to conclude the year at approximately 3.1% and Owner’s Equivalent Rent (OER) close to 3.4%. The rent figures for May were stronger than anticipated, supporting the upward adjustment following April’s surge in market rent and indicating that the disinflation of shelter costs has plateaued at a level higher than earlier estimates.
The increase in new lease prices for firmer spring rentals has contributed to a deceleration in the observed housing inflation. According to Zillow Research, shelter costs are expected to sustain this elevated level instead of experiencing a renewed acceleration. The rental vacancy rate has mostly returned to normal, which means that renters are less compelled to agree to elevated listed rents and significant rent increases.
The shelter components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are still increasing at a rate that outpaces current market rents, indicating a combination of softer pricing for new leases and increases for renewing and long-term tenants.
Zillow CPI Shelter Forecast — June 2026
| Period | Owners’ Equivalent Rent | Rent of Primary Residence | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month-over-month | Year-over-year | Month-over-month | Year-over-year | |||||
| Forecast | Actual | Forecast | Actual | Forecast | Actual | Forecast | Actual | |
| January 2026 | 0.26% | 0.22% | 3.29% | 3.26% | 0.21% | 0.25% | 2.78% | 2.84% |
| February 2026 | 0.18% | 0.22% | 3.14% | 3.19% | 0.19% | 0.13% | 2.74% | 2.68% |
| March 2026 | 0.21% | 0.28% | 3.02% | 3.10% | 0.17% | 0.19% | 2.55% | 2.56% |
| April 2026 | 0.44% | 0.53% | 3.20% | 3.30% | 0.39% | 0.55% | 2.63% | 2.79% |
| May 2026 | 0.25% | 0.29% | 3.27% | 3.32% | 0.20% | 0.36% | 2.76% | 2.92% |
| June 2026 | 0.27% | — | 3.28% | — | 0.26% | — | 2.96% | — |
| December 2026 | 0.24% | — | 3.32% | — | 0.21% | — | 2.83% | — |
OER Highlights, Rental Trends, Figures & More
Owner’s Equivalent Rent, which assesses the hypothetical rental cost homeowners would incur for their own properties, is anticipated to have risen by 0.27% in June 2026 (with a 95% confidence interval of 0.14%—0.40%). This increase would elevate the annual growth rate of the index to 3.28%. We project that the monthly growth will stabilize at a rate of approximately 0.24% throughout the year. Zillow predicts that OER will increase by 3.40% in 2026, aligning closely with the 2025 growth rate of 3.36%.
The Rent of Primary Residence, which monitors rent payments, is anticipated to have risen by 0.26% in June 2026 (with a 95% confidence interval of 0.11%—0.41%). This increase would elevate the annual growth of the index to 2.96%. The forecast projects that the monthly growth rate will stabilize at approximately 0.22% throughout the year. Experts at Zillow predict that the Rent of Primary Residence index will increase by 3.13% in 2026, representing a modest rise from the 2025 increase of 2.92%.
Zillow maintains its forecast for rent growth in single-family homes: It is anticipated that single-family rents will increase by 3.1% year-over-year in 2026. Zillow also keeps its outlook for rent growth in apartments unchanged: It is projected that multifamily rents will rise to 2.0% year-over-year in 2026.
New shelter inflation numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 8:30 ET.
Note: These forecasts are based on predictions from a model that makes explicit the relationship between on market rents (measured by the Zillow’s Observed Rent Index) and the shelter components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
