The U.S. Census Bureau recently released its 2024 population estimates, providing key metrics such as population growth, natural change (births minus deaths), domestic migration, international migration, and net migration. Now The National Association of Realtors has analyzed that data to identity the top 15 states in each of those categories.
In some ways, the nation’s demographic trends stayed the course. For instance, the three most populous states were still California (39.4 million), Texas (31.3 million), and Florida (23.4 million). Meanwhile, some states outpaced their previous years’ population growth: New Jersey (1.3%), Washington (1.3%), and Massachusetts (1.0%) jumped up to join the top 15 states with the fastest population growth in 2024.
In other ways, there were big changes afoot. The most surprising was that the nation’s population grew at its highest rate in over two decades, with 84% of that surge due to international migration.
Birth Rates: Which States Bucked the Declining Trend?
Birth rates continued to decline nationwide in 2024, but a few states increased their number of births from the previous year:
- Idaho led with a 2.2% growth rate
- Montana (2.2%)
- South Dakota (1.3%)
- Utah (0.5%)
- Colorado (0.3%)
- Tennessee (0.1%)
- North Carolina (0.05%)
Natural Population Change: Organic Growth Equals Stability
Natural population change is a foundational metric linked to an area’s economic stability: a positive natural change means that an area’s population grew organically, without relying on migration. Areas with high natural change tend to have younger populations, leading to a more balanced age distribution.
The states with the most positive population change were:
- Missouri had the most significant improvement, reversing its 2023 negative change of 90 more deaths than births to a natural increase of 1,521 births in 2024
- Montana (103% increase)
- Tennessee (74% increase)
- Wisconsin (50% increase)
Of course, larger states still led in absolute numbers, with Texas (158,753) and California (110,466) each surpassing 100,000 more births than deaths in 2024.
Domestic Migration: Driving a Metro’s Economic Power
Domestic migration, the movement of people between areas within the country, is a powerful driver of economic and demographic change. It not only provides the people and resources needed to grow a metro, it also reflects an area’s attractiveness. Domestic migration plays a foundational role in shaping long-term local development.
The highest growth in domestic migration for 2024 were:
- Texas led with 85,267 net domestic influx
- North Carolina (82,288)
- South Carolina (68,043)
- Virginia and Washington both reversed their negative migration trends, with Virginia seeing a 155% increase in net domestic migration
- Utah had the largest growth in domestic migration, gaining nearly seven times more new residents than in 2023
International Migration: A Population Growth Driver
The U.S. Census Bureau updated its methodology for estimating international migration in 2024, which resulted in higher estimates in nearly all areas. The U.S. added a net increase of 2.8 million people due to international migration, making up 84% of the nation’s total population growth last year (3.3 million), and a huge increase from 2022 (1.7 million) and 2023 (2.3 million).
As expected, Florida and California led the nation in net international migration gains. While the top 15 states with the largest gains remained consistent with 2023, California’s gains surged by 23%.
Net Migration: The 50,000-Foot View of Population Change
Net migration combines domestic and international migration to provide a high-level view of population shifts across states. Higher international migration resulted in higher net migration gains as well, with all states across the country experiencing positive net migration.
Some highlights:
- Florida maintained its position as the leader in net migration gains with 475,339, followed closely by Texas (404,836)
- Both New York and California reversed their net migration losses of previous years
- New York recorded 86,244 net migration gains
- California achieved over 120,000 net migration gains, making it the fourth state with the largest net migration gains, behind Florida, Texas, and North Carolina
- Illinois increased its net migration gains by over five times compared to 2023
Click here to read more on NAR’s population and migration report.
